Path: bloom-picayune.mit.edu!snorkelwacker.mit.edu!americast.com!americast.com!americast-post Newsgroups: americast.forbes From: americast-post@AmeriCast.Com Organization: American Cybercasting Approved: americast-post@AmeriCast.com Subject: fully valued. ''Even allowing for a Date: Wed, 18 Nov 92 14:52:03 EST Message-ID: "Copyright 1992 Forbes, Inc. Any further reproduction or redistribution without the express written permission of Forbes and ACC is prohibited." fully valued. ''Even allowing for a sizable jump in reserves and produc- tion,'' he says, ''the stock is selling above its net asset value. Most of the other exploration and production companies I follow sell at a discount.'' A less risky bet on Box's prospects may be those $50 million in convert- ible debentures. They will yield about 8% when they start trading. rates them a speculative B ; Moody's, a B3. HOWARDUDNITSKY Come home to AMONG THOSE drug stocks that have taken a pasting this year is $7.8 billion (estimated 1992 sales) American Home Products Corp. Recent price: 68, down around 20% from its 86 1/4 alltime high, set in late 1991. The whole health care sector has been weak, of course (see p. 84), but there are several specific issues putting sure. For example, there is concern over how soon the Food & Drug Administration will approve the sale of generic forms of Premarin, Ameri- can Home's very successful estrogen replacement drug. Estimates put Pre- marin's 1992 sales, worldwide, at nearly $700 million. Meantime, Pfizer recently announced plans to develop, along with Procter & Gam- ble, a new drug for osteoporosis that would compete with Premarin. But analyst Patricia Bank of New York's Mabon Securities thinks these and other concerns are overstated. She says the ability of generics to undercut Premarin on price is limited, because the drug costs a patient only about 36 cents a day. She also notes that will soon file a new drug application for Premarin , a next- generation oral combination hor- mone replacement product. As for the proposed Pfizer- drug, Bank says it may not reach the U.S. market until at least 1995. Bank expects to earn $4.90 a share this year, up 13%. She looks for a further 15% gain, to $5.65, in 1993. If she's right, then the stock sells for just 12 times next year's anticipated earn- ings, at the low end of its historic range. Finally, Bank likes for its yield, recently 4.2%.dr6,1p?  "This information is the property of Forbes, Inc., ACC takes no responsibility for its content, or the actions of any individual or institution, predicated on the information herin. Forbes Subscriptions are available to students and faculty members at the student/educator rate of $33 for one year, 27 issues. Regularly priced $52. Information about print subscriptions may be had by calling 1-800-888-9896. For further information about the electronic version of Forbes, contact usa@AmeriCast.COM"