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Subject: Presentiment of imperialism
Date: Mon, 2 Nov 92 14:20:04 EST
Message-ID: <13.1992Nov2.142005@AmeriCast.com>

DATE(YYYY/MM/DD): 1992/10/28
TITLE: Presentiment of imperialism
BY: Sergei Karaganov
SUBJECTS: 32, 17
SECTION: 3

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SUMMARY: Ethnic conflicts in ex-Soviet Union and Russian policy
###
     
                Presentiment of imperialism
     The recent fruitless summit in Bishkek, against the background of
the unrest  in Tajikistan  and the civil war in Georgia, has dispelled
the rising  optimism regarding  the  future  of  the  Commonwealth  of
Independent   States, and  the possibilities  of jointly settling and,
more importantly, preventing conflicts.
     It is  becoming more  and more  obvious that  we are  just at the
beginning of  a long  period of  conflicts, even wars -- let's hope of
small scale.  This period  will go  on unless  a system  of new states
becomes firmly  established on  the territory  of ex-Soviet  Union. In
this process  some  of  them  will  disintegrate,  some  may  even  be
swallowed  by   others,  and   certain  countries  may  possibly    be
reintegrated into a new community.
     Politics   in our  part  of  Eurasia    begins  increasingly  and
obviously to  resemble Europe  during previous  centuries. Perhaps one
may try  to blame someone for what has happened. But this is senseless
and unproductive.
     But just  as unproductive  and dangerous is the ostrich policy of
not recognizing  the coming  realities. One  may speak as often as one
likes about  how  we  must  part  from  Asia  and  withdraw  from  the
Transcaucasus, not  send Russian  boys to  get killed in peace-keeping
operations beyond  the borders  of Russia.  But there  is a continuous
escalation of  conflicts, destabilization  of neighbouring  districts,
republics, and  even of  whole regions.  Hence   the  rising  tide  of
terrorism and  refugees. Not only Russians  or Russian-speaking people
break into  a run,  but all  who are able to. Together  with the West,
we have got into the habit  of discussing  the threat of the migration
wave from  the East,  of sighing   when  the  first    outbreaks    of
extremism and  violence against foreigners begin to show up in wealthy
Germany. Meanwhile, the real migratory invasion is threatening  us.
     Indecision or  inability to  settle problems  today will force us
and neighbouring   peoples  and countries  to pay  double the price or
much more  tomorrow. The  Karabakh  conflict could have been prevented
or limited  by unpopular   measures  at the early stages. But now  the
whole  of  the  Transcaucasus    has  already  been  lebanonized.  The
metastases of  this awful  disease will  affect  us,  too.  The  Tajik
disease, if  no attempt  is made to cut it short, will sooner or later
spread on to Uzbekistan. Then it will be the turn of Kazakhstan.
     It is  also obvious  that the  hopes of some of Russia's liberals
that the  West will  help actively  to settle  all  these  crises  are
unrealistic. The  Yugoslav experience  has shown  that the most we can
hope for  is general  political  help. The West  is not prepared for a
deep political   involvement,  much less  a   direct participation, in
these  not   very  comprehensible  and  faraway    conflicts.  The  UN
possibilities   are limited,  the more so as it is already bogged down
in Yugoslavia.
     Russia, therefore,   inevitably  will have  to participate in the
many conflicts along its borders. It cannot avoid a post-imperial role
in  their  settlement.  Unfortunately,  it  will  have  to  play    on
contradictions, conclude temporary alliances, send troops -- in short,
pursue a  policy very  much like  the one the Russian state pursued in
the past centuries.
     On what  foundations can  this new post-imperial policy be built?
The essential  principle is  to recognize  the territorial  and  state
status-quo,   no matter  how unjust   and stupid it may seem. Attempts
to recarve   the  borders will  mutiply   by many times the sources of
conflict.
     A  post-imperial  role  must  also  incorporate  the  defence  of
national minorities, with even the use of force as a last resort. This
means   the protection  not only  of Russians,   but all other people.
The slogan  of defending  the Russian-speaking  people is  unpractical
and dangerous.  How is it possible to tell Russians in Uzbekistan from
Ukrainians? And  what  makes  Armenians  in  Tajikistan    worse  than
Belorussians? If  one allows  the violation  of  the  rights  of  non-
Russians, the chain reaction will inevitably reach the Russians, too.
     What must  be done   is  to come to an agreement with the West so
that Russia's  special role  in the  settlement   of conflicts will be
approved   by the  CSCE and  the UN,  and will be controlled  by them.
This is   necessary  to avoid  troubles in the international arena, as
well as to restrain us from using force.
     Finally, for  Russia to  be able  to play  an  enlightened  post-
imperial     role  in   ex-Soviet     Union,  it   must  itself  avoid
disintegration. If  this happens,  a "black  hole"   will form  on the
territory of  the former  USSR, creating  instability in the  heart of
Eurasia. Others  will have  to play   the role of regulators, but they
will hardly be able to cope with this task.
     Sergei Karaganov
     
     
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