Path: bloom-picayune.mit.edu!snorkelwacker.mit.edu!americast.com!americast.com!americast-post Newsgroups: americast.twt.news From: americast-post@AmeriCast.Com Organization: American Cybercasting Approved: americast-post@AmeriCast.com Subject: GOP staging comebacks in Senate, House races Date: Mon, 26 Oct 92 14:37:03 EST Message-ID: \SE A;NATION \SS (WS) \HD GOP staging comebacks in Senate, House races \BY Peter A. Brown \CR SCRIPPS HOWARD NEWS SERVICE Over the past two weeks, while Democrat Bill Clinton appears to have solidified his claim on the presidency, Republicans have been making a comeback in their efforts to avoid a congressional wipeout. The trend is especially true in the Senate, where the margins have closed dramatically in more than a half-dozen races in which Democrats had held solid double-digit leads. Democrats remain favored to gain in total number of Senate seats, but their goal of picking up at least three to give them the 60 votes needed to stop a GOP filibuster is endangered. Democrats now hold a 57-43 margin. In the House, where Democrats outnumber Republicans 266-166, the outlook is for a Republican pickup as a huge turnover in membership will likely take a greater toll on Democrats because of their greater numbers. There will be at least 91 new House members and perhaps as many as 150. In addition, House results tend to be more linked to presidential voting than Senate races, so if President Bush can narrow Mr. Clinton's margin it will probably help GOP congressional candidates. "The Clinton landslide looks very much like it's very much still in progress," said Stuart Rothenberg, publisher of a nonpartisan newsletter on congressional elections, "but in Senate races across the country there is a surprising Republican rebound." "The impact of Democratic strength at the top of the ticket, the anti-incumbent mood and newly apparent flaws in a handful of Democratic candidates leaves room for plenty of uncertainty" in the Senate, he said. Tom Cole, executive director of the National Republican Campaign Committee, said: "There are at least 100 seats out there that are still in play. Out of them, 65 to 75 are Democratic. We have opportunities to pick up as opposed to opportunities to lose." Many of the Democrats whose chances appear less bright than a few weeks ago are women, leaving open the question of whether 1992 will actually turn out to be the year of the woman. One new female senator appears to be a sure thing - Dianne Feinstein in California, who seems almost certain to unseat Republican John Seymour. Among the Democrats who held double-digit leads but are now endangered are incumbents Terry Sanford in North Carolina, Ernest Hollings in South Carolina and John Glenn in Ohio. If Mr. Glenn, a former astronaut and 1984 candidate for the Democratic presidential nomination, were to lose after three terms, it would probably be the surprise of the election year. In New York, Republican Sen. Alfonse D'Amato has come back against favored challenger Robert Abrams to make the race close. In Pennsylvania, Republican Sen. Arlen Specter is now favored against challenger Lynn Yeakel, who had led earlier, and Republican Sen. Bob Packwood is gaining in Oregon. In Wisconsin, Republican Sen. Bob Kasten has moved from far back into a tight race with Democratic challenger Russ Feingold. It is the open seats where Democrats are especially concerned. Barbara Boxer's once 20-point leader over conservative broadcaster Bruce Herchensohn in the second California race has disappeared and the two are virtually even in late tracking polls. In Colorado, Rep. Ben Nighthorse Campbell's attempt to become the first American Indian in the Senate appears to be much less of a sure thing as Republican state Sen. Terry Considine has moved up in the polls. In Washington, Patty Murray, who won the Democratic nomination as a "mom in tennis shoes" running against the system, has lost her 20-point lead and is now nearly even with GOP Rep. Rod Chandler. In Illinois, Carol Moseley Braun, trying to become the first black woman ever elected to the Senate, continues to hold about a 10-point lead over Republican Rich Williamson, but that is less than half of what it was a month ago. Democratic pollster Mark Mellman agrees that "all of a sudden these races have become a lot closer." He said money is a primary reason. "Democrats emerged from the primaries with big leads but empty checkbooks" and have become victims of effective TV ads by the better-funded GOP candidates, Mr. Mellman said. Another factor hurting Democrats is the general mood of anti-incumbency and hostility toward Congress. Mr. Campbell, Mrs. Boxer and Rep. Les AuCoin in Oregon are all House members whose ties to that unpopular institution and records are being used effectively against them. The big unknown in House contests is how the anti-incumbent sentiment showing up in polls will translate into voting behavior. A Wall Street Journal-NBC poll last week showed that 31 percent of voters say their incumbent deserves another term, while 56 percent believe it's time to give someone else a chance. Mr. Rothenberg said: "The Republicans continue to be well positioned to gain House seats, probably somewhere in the 15- to 20-seat vicinity. . . . But even more than in Senate races, congressional contests can be affected by the presidential vote, particularly in those states where Bill Clinton rolls up a 15-point victory." This article is copyright 1992 The Washington Times. 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