Path: bloom-picayune.mit.edu!snorkelwacker.mit.edu!americast.com!americast.com!americast-post Newsgroups: americast.twt.news From: americast-post@AmeriCast.Com Organization: American Cybercasting Approved: americast-post@AmeriCast.com Subject: Clinton, Bush seek 134 votes of evangelicals Date: Fri, 30 Oct 92 15:33:28 EST Message-ID: \SE A \HD Clinton, Bush seek 134 votes of evangelicals \BY Larry Witham \CR THE WASHINGTON TIMES As few as half of the nation's voting-age evangelicals may pull the lever in presidential elections, but they still have the potential to deliver 134 electoral votes in seven states this year. That's why the Bush campaign and its evangelical supporters are revving up appeals, registering voters and setting up phone banks for Election Day. That's also why Democratic presidential candidate Bill Clinton has campaigned in churches, paraphrased the Bible and professed religious values. Republican presidential candidates enjoyed solid backing from white Protestants, including evangelicals, since 1980. But the evangelical support has now slipped, according to some polls and analysts. The recession, they add, is making some evangelicals vote on pocketbook issues more than social or moral concerns. "Low turnout of evangelicals will hurt Mr. Bush most," said John Green, director of the Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron. The center estimates that the nation has 43 million evangelicals of voting age, but at most only 29 million voted in the 1988 election. The Bush campaign counts up to 60 million "born again" voters. "It seems to us that Governor Clinton would be doing very well if he got 40 percent of the white evangelical vote," Mr. Green said. But state by state the pressure is on Mr. Bush. "This is a very large and influential and publicly active constituency nationwide," said Bob Heckman, deputy director of national coalitions for the Bush campaign. Mr. Green and other analysts said evangelicals could swing Georgia, Missouri and North Carolina to Mr. Bush, who also is counting on their vote in Florida, where he leads in the polls. Mr. Green said Mr. Bush could win Michigan, Ohio and Texas if he can close the gap by five points and then get a surge of evangelical voters. Those seven states have a total of 134 electoral votes, nearly half the 270 required to win. Evangelical Leaders and Laymen for Bush-Quayle, a campaign arm, and the independent Christian Coalition, founded by religious broadcaster Pat Robertson, are among the main engines behind the grass-roots effort. "Whenever we go into a state, the president or vice president will meet with key evangelical leaders," Mr. Heckman said, adding that 3,000 pastors endorsed Mr. Bush. The Christian Coalition, which gained skill and momentum from Mr. Robertson's 1988 presidential bid, is distributing 40 million voter-education guides. It is promoting "in pew" voter registration and has computer-backed phone banks ready for Election Day. "We think that there is a very good chance that the president will receive the same level of support as he did in 1988," said Ralph Reed Jr., executive director of the Christian Coalition. At a news conference yesterday, the Rev. Jack Turner, Arlington pastor of vice presidential candidate Albert Gore, decried as "reprehensible" a flier circulated by pro-life Operation Rescue founder Randall Terry. It said, "To vote for Bill Clinton is to sin against God." Mr. Clinton's former Little Rock pastor, the Rev. Brian Harbour, also signed the Turner statement, and 50 religious leaders - a group largely supportive of liberal and Democratic agendas - backed criticism of the way some religious conservatives have attacked the Clinton-Gore ticket. An estimated 24 million to 29 million self-described evangelicals voted in 1988, with 77 percent to 83 percent supporting Mr. Bush, according to various exit polls. Among all Protestants, evangelicals respond more to issues such as family values, abortion, school prayer, homosexual rights and a candidate's way of life. And they are concentrated mostly in the South, which Mr. Heckman cites as a Republican disadvantage this election. "The Democratic ticket is two Southern Baptist Southerners," he said. A major survey by the University of Akron's institute showed in June that 68 percent of evangelicals said they would vote for Mr. Bush. The survey of more than 4,000 voters is more precise and enduring than daily small-sample polls, Mr. Green said. Mainline white Protestants long voted Republican for economic and class reasons, Mr. Green said. By 1980, social and moral concerns also solidified most evangelicals behind the Republican agenda. He said Mr. Clinton may draw the evangelicals who are least religious, poorer and more liberal. "Mr. Clinton understands far better than previous Democrats the importance of religious symbols to the American public, especially evangelicals," said James E. Smith, director of government affairs for the Christian Life Commission of the 15-million-member Southern Baptist Convention. At the Democratic National Convention, Mr. Clinton spoke of a "New Covenant." The first joint Clinton-Gore news conference in Tennessee opened on national television with a prayer. "There's a percentage of Southern Baptists who will always vote Democratic," Mr. Smith said. Still, many evangelicals are convinced that Mr. Bush's economic policies are best for families, Mr. Heckman said. Despite some Republican floundering on the "family values" theme and a split with evangelicals over Mr. Bush's catering to homosexual groups, the pro-family coalition solidified behind Mr. Bush by October, Mr. Reed said. The key now, he said, is to get more evangelicals to register and the undecided or apathetic ones to vote. The Christian Coalition, for example, is distributing 3 million more voter guides in Missouri, Georgia and North Carolina. Its ally, Michigan Right to Life, will use its computer list of 260,000 households to get out the vote. Mr. Green said that if Mr. Bush closes the gap to five points in Ohio, a turnout of 750,000 pro-Bush evangelicals could win him the state. "Evangelical voters tend to break [to back a candidate] late," Mr. Reed said. This article is copyright 1992 The Washington Times. Redistribution to other sites is not permitted except by arrangement with American Cybercasting Corporation. For more information, send-email to usa@AmeriCast.COM