Path: bloom-picayune.mit.edu!snorkelwacker.mit.edu!americast.com!americast.com!americast-post Newsgroups: americast.twt.news From: americast-post@AmeriCast.Com Organization: American Cybercasting Approved: americast-post@AmeriCast.com Subject: Candidates pound away Date: Sat, 31 Oct 92 14:00:15 EST Message-ID: \SE A \HD Candidates pound away \SH GOP not cavalier about Virginia \BY Laurie Kellman \CR THE WASHINGTON TIMES The last time Virginia voted for a Democrat for president, "I Want to Hold Your Hand" was the top-selling pop single, and the nation was still mourning the loss of its young commander in chief. Since 1964, Democrats have come close to winning the state only once, when Jimmy Carter came within 1.3 percentage points of Gerald Ford in 1976. And the Old Dominion was the only Southern state that went against the former Georgia governor. But this year is different. Virginia's growing urban and suburban populations and the Democrats' new appeal to moderate suburban voters have tossed the state's 13 electoral votes into the air like convention confetti. Political analysts are betting Mr. Bush will take the state, but by a wafer-thin margin. The closeness of the polls is a political landmark Virginia has not seen in decades. "We are running harder this year than we have in any election," said William Kling, president of the Prince William County Republican Committee and an adviser for the Bush-Quayle campaign. "This is by no means a gimme." Ray Allen, executive director for Bush-Quayle Virginia, agreed. "This is not '88, when we were ahead by 15 points with two weeks to go. This is trench warfare." A poll conducted Wednesday and Thursday by Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research Inc. for The Washington Times shows that Mr. Bush has emerged from a dead heat to lead Mr. Clinton 43 percent to 38 percent. Ten percent backed independent Ross Perot, and 9 percent were undecided. Despite Mr. Bush's 5-point lead, analysts and political supporters say the race isn't over. "The fact that here it is, Oct. 30, and we're still not ready to bet the house on states like Virginia and Idaho is not good news for the Republicans," said Brad Coker, president of Mason-Dixon. "But I'd still put my money on George Bush in Virginia." Analysts say the state's urban and suburban populations will be a big factor at the polls Tuesday. Since 1980, the population of the state's urban areas has jumped 21.7 percent, says the University of Virginia's Center for Public Service. Virginia's rural population has grown by only 4.2 percent. "This is a different Virginia than it was 10 years ago," said Mark Rozell, a political science professor at Mary Washington College. "The urban areas are bigger, and they tend to be more politically progressive than rural areas. That gives a Southern, moderate Democratic ticket a good chance of winning." Like Mr. Rozell, political analyst Thomas Morris believes Mr. Bush will win Virginia by a small margin. But it will be a photo finish, Mr. Morris said, because of the new appeal of the Democrats in the growing suburbs. For the first time, more than half the state's voters live in the suburbs, he said. "Whoever can win the suburbs is going to carry Virginia," said Mr. Morris, president of Emory & Henry College. "In state elections, the suburbs have gone for the moderate Democrats - the Don Beyers, the Chuck Robbs and the Doug Wilders. Bill Clinton comes out of that tradition." Forty-four percent of Northern Virginia residents surveyed in this week's poll said they would vote for Mr. Clinton. Thirty-eight percent backed Mr. Bush, 8 percent backed Mr. Perot and 10 percent were undecided. Except for the 1964 race between Democrat Lyndon Johnson and Republican Barry Goldwater, Virginians have not voted for a Democrat since 1948, when Harry Truman beat Thomas Dewey by nearly 7 percentage points. Both Democrats and Republicans claim the upper hand this year. "We're flat going to clean Bill Clinton's clock," said Mr. Allen, who said the president's strong showing in the last presidential debate would boost his support. "The only question in our minds is whether there's enough time left for the wave to crest. But we're seeing a continuation of a trend, and that's all I care about." "I think we're going to pull it out and win this one," said Lavora Barnes, press secretary for Clinton-Gore Virginia. "In a state that quite frankly should be an easy winner for the Republicans, it's amazing. It's a chance to do something we haven't been able to do in a long time." This article is copyright 1992 The Washington Times. Redistribution to other sites is not permitted except by arrangement with American Cybercasting Corporation. For more information, send-email to usa@AmeriCast.COM