Path: bloom-picayune.mit.edu!snorkelwacker.mit.edu!americast.com!americast.com!americast-post Newsgroups: americast.twt.news From: americast-post@AmeriCast.Com Organization: American Cybercasting Approved: americast-post@AmeriCast.com Subject: Electoral poll results mirror Clinton's popular-vote drop Date: Sat, 31 Oct 92 14:00:15 EST Message-ID: \SE A;NATION;CAMPAIGN '92 \HD Electoral poll results mirror Clinton's popular-vote drop \BY Ralph Z. Hallow \CR THE WASHINGTON TIMES Confirming President Bush's weeklong comeback, a new Electoral College survey shows Bill Clinton's lead shrinking, and three popular vote polls show Mr. Bush tied with the Democratic nominee. The apparent convergence of so many polls, including his own, led a normally cautious Republican pollster to conclude there may be an upset in the making. "The race has closed 10 points in a week and could easily move . . . enough to give Bush a victory," said GOP pollster Ed Goeas. "For the first time, Bush looks like he's having fun, which is coming across to voters. Clinton's no longer smiling; he looks stressed." The Washington Times/Mason-Dixon survey released yesterday shows Mr. Clinton with 25 states and 284 electoral votes, 14 votes more than the 270 needed to win. Four days ago, the Times poll showed Mr. Clinton with 305 electoral votes and Mr. Bush with 38. The Times poll continues to show no Electoral College votes for Ross Perot. The Times survey gives Mr. Bush eight states and 80 electoral votes, while 18 states with 174 electoral votes are now up for grabs. Two Gallup polls, one for Newsweek and the other for Cable News Network and USA Today, have Mr. Bush trailing Mr. Clinton by 2 points and 1 point, respectively. The gap in each is well within the Newsweek poll's 4-point error margin and CNN-USA Today's 3-point margin. The Newsweek poll, taken Wednesday and Thursday, showed Mr. Clinton with 41 percent, Mr. Bush with 39 percent and Mr. Perot with 14 percent among 808 likely voters. The poll has a 4-point margin of error. The CNN tracking poll, based on the average of two polls Wednesday and Thursday of more than 1,600 likely voters, had Mr. Clinton at 41 percent, Mr. Bush at 40 percent and Mr. Perot at 14 percent. A national poll of likely voters by Public Opinion Strategies, a GOP firm, taken Wednesday and Thursday, has Mr. Clinton leading by only 3 points, 36-33, with Mr. Perot at 15 percent. The poll has a plus or minus 3.5-point margin of error. Mason-Dixon President Brad Coker says the two most significant shifts that tightened the Electoral College race were Michigan, polled Wednesday and Thursday, and New Jersey, polled last Saturday and Sunday. Both states, totaling 33 electoral votes, moved from "leaning Clinton" to "competitive," he said. "Texas also appears to be going to Bush, which was to be expected at some point," Mr. Coker said. Barring some devastating new revelations regarding the candidates, Mr. Coker now assigns an 80 percent probability that the outcome Tuesday will be a narrow Clinton victory rather than the landslide Republicans feared and Democrats thought possible. "Even if Bush wins every state now in the competitive column, Clinton has 284 electoral votes, and that makes him president," says Mr. Coker. What could happen to let Mr. Bush eke out a victory? One state with more than 14 electoral votes - Clinton-leaning Illinois or Pennsylvania - needs to go to the president. Or two or more states with a combined vote of more than 14 need to shift to Mr. Bush - Georgia (13), Kentucky (8), Colorado (8), Maine (3). These states will be sampled this weekend by the Times/Mason-Dixon poll. "I consider these the most likely to flip," said Mr. Coker. "Georgia and either Kentucky or Colorado would do it for Bush. But the tougher part is that he still has to take all 18 competitive states as well. Otherwise, he has to get two, three or four states out of the Clinton column, and I'd keep my eye on Tennessee." ****MAP TEXT DIVIDING THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE Results of The Washington Times poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research Inc. shows 284 Electoral College votes likely to go for Democratic presidential nominee Bill Clinton. Likely Clinton: 152 Leaning Clinton: 132 Competitive: 174 Leaning Bush: 72 Likely Bush: 8 Likely Clinton: Arkansas Wisconsin New York Maryland Minnesota West Virginia D.C. Massachusetts Rhode Island California Hawaii Leaning Clinton: Iowa Oregon Tennessee New Mexico Illinois Washington Vermont Georgia Pennsylvania Colorado Kentucky Montana Connecticut * Maine (3) Competitive Michigan North Carolina Arizona Ohio Louisiana New Jersey Delaware Mississippi Missouri New Hampshire Alaska South Carolina Kansas Alabama Wyoming South Dakota Nevada Florida * Maine (1) * Nebraska (2) Leaning Bush: Texas Idaho * Nebraska (3) Oklahoma Indiana Virginia Likely Bush: Utah North Dakota * Maine and Nebraska divide their electoral votes based on congressional district results. This article is copyright 1992 The Washington Times. Redistribution to other sites is not permitted except by arrangement with American Cybercasting Corporation. For more information, send-email to usa@AmeriCast.COM