Path: bloom-picayune.mit.edu!snorkelwacker.mit.edu!americast.com!americast.com!americast-post Newsgroups: americast.twt.news From: americast-post@AmeriCast.Com Organization: American Cybercasting Approved: americast-post@AmeriCast.com Subject: India, Pakistan cited in spread of nuclear arms Date: Sat, 31 Oct 92 14:00:15 EST Message-ID: \SE A;WORLD \HD India, Pakistan cited in spread of nuclear arms \BY Bill Gertz \CR THE WASHINGTON TIMES Tensions between India and Pakistan nearly led to a nuclear war in 1990 and both countries currently are engaged in a race to build ballistic missiles, the CIA's top weapons proliferation specialist said yesterday. Gordon Oehler, director of the CIA Non-proliferation Center, said during a conference that the India-Pakistan proliferation problem is one of several examples of the danger posed by the spread of advanced weapons. "In the case of India and Pakistan, in 1990 when they were running up toward the possibility of a war, there was a real possibility that if it did go to war, it would be nuclear," Mr. Oehler said. Indian and Pakistani military forces exchanged artillery fire in border fighting in the fall of 1990 over the disputed Kashmir region. Mr. Oehler said U.S. intelligence suspected at the time that neither country understood the consequences of going nuclear. "Nuclear weapons were seen as simply one more step in the evolution of more advanced weapons," he said. He did not elaborate. Other intelligence sources said the agency obtained intelligence at the time indicating nuclear weapons would be used if full-scale conflict broke out. The CIA believes India can assemble about 25 nuclear weapons in a matter of days. Pakistan can build about 15 nuclear weapons in a matter of days. The two foes can deliver nuclear arms only by aircraft, although both are engaged in a race to build ballistic missiles. "Both countries are now pursuing very rapidly missile development programs, and in this case India is significantly ahead with the Agni and other missiles they have under development indigenously," Mr. Oehler said. "But with missiles for sale in the world, particularly from China and North Korea, Pakistan could be catching up fairly quickly," he said. Pakistan has purchased M-class short-range missiles from China and plans to buy some 90 short- and intermediate-range missiles from North Korea. India is building the intermediate-range Agni missile, with a range of 1,550 miles, and also a shorter-range missile known as the Prithvi. Nuclear weapons have not been tested in the atmosphere for some time and the international scientific community should focus more of its attention on studying the impact of a nuclear war, Mr. Oehler said. "I think many of the generation of leaders today who are contemplating nuclear weapons have no concept of the devastation these weapons can bring," Mr. Oehler said. Mr. Oehler said the Middle East and South Asia regions are places where "there is still a very significant military buildup" underway. Arms proliferation is "very much of a problem," Mr. Oehler said. "What we're seeing as governments change, really the control of these weapons can change very rapidly as well," he said during a conference on proliferation sponsored by the American Association for the Advancement of Science. The spread of advanced weapons is due in part to "the folding of superpower umbrellas" and new regional power alignments, he said. Elsewhere, the breakup of the Soviet Union spurred an arms-selling spree by former republics strapped for hard currency. "We're beginning to see more and more of the advanced weapons which the Soviets had kept very well bottled up inside the Soviet Union, for sale anywhere in the world to anyone that has hard currency," he said. The biggest customers remain the Middle Eastern states, especially Iran, which is buying large quantities of arms from Russia, China and North Korea. Other countries in the region are buying up advanced weapons to defend themselves from Iraq. Another problem the CIA is focusing on is the spread of advanced and more lethal conventional arms - weapons capable of having a "mass impact," such as cluster munitions, cruise missiles and precision-guided bombs, Mr. Oehler said. This article is copyright 1992 The Washington Times. Redistribution to other sites is not permitted except by arrangement with American Cybercasting Corporation. For more information, send-email to usa@AmeriCast.COM