Path: bloom-picayune.mit.edu!snorkelwacker.mit.edu!americast.com!americast.com!americast-post Newsgroups: americast.twt.news From: americast-post@AmeriCast.Com Organization: American Cybercasting Approved: americast-post@AmeriCast.com Subject: More Americans seen going to polls this election Date: Sat, 31 Oct 92 14:00:15 EST Message-ID: \SE A;CAMPAIGN '92 \HD More Americans seen going to polls this election \BY Joyce Price \CR THE WASHINGTON TIMES Voter turnout in Tuesday's general election is expected to be up for the first time in 32 years, but most experts believe the increase will be moderate at best. Only 50.1 percent of the voting-age population went to the polls in the 1988 presidential race, down from nearly 63 percent in 1960. "I feel the turnout Tuesday will either go up modestly, by 1 or 2 points, or moderately, by 3 or 4 percent," said Curtis B. Gans, director of the Committee for the Study of the American Electorate. Larry Hugick, managing editor of the Gallup Poll, expects turnout to be slightly ahead of those predictions. "We're assuming turnout will be above the 50 percent estimate for 1988. It will probably be 55 percent," he said in a telephone interview. Steve Knack, an assistant professor in the School of Public Affairs at American University, says turnout could be as high as 56 percent. But he calls a turnout of 52 to 53 percent a "more realistic forecast for 1992." Some state elections officials foresee far greater increases in their jurisdictions. In Maryland, for instance, approximately 74 percent of registered voters cast ballots in the past three presidential general elections. "But we're predicting an 85 percent turnout this year," said Marvin Meyn, deputy administrator of elections. "We have three [presidential] candidates on the ballot who seem to be pretty alive, and we have an abortion issue on the ballot that also seems to be alive," Mr. Meyn said. Mr. Gans and Mr. Knack both expressed doubt that Maryland will see such a jump in turnout. "Whatever turnout bump we have this year will be temporary - driven by the recession," Mr. Gans said. "And in this year, an increase in turnout is not going to help the incumbent because it's an angry vote." But Mr. Knack disputes both of these arguments. He pointed out that in 1980, when there was both a recession and a third-party candidate, John Anderson, there was a "1-point drop in turnout from the 1976 level of 53.6 percent." As for the Ross Perot factor, he said the 1968 election also "argues against a significant third-candidate impact." George Wallace won several states that year "but turnout still fell by 1.1 points" from 1964 levels, he said. Unlike Mr. Gans, Mr. Knack said he does not believe a higher voter turnout is necessarily bad news for President Bush. Voter registration levels are up this year. In addition to efforts led by Jesse Jackson, Mr. Perot, Project VOTE and other groups, 28 states have implemented some version of a "motor voter" law - requiring that applicants for driver's licenses be given the opportunity to register to vote. But Mr. Gans said evidence to date indicates voter registration increases have been far less than dramatic. With 29 states and the District of Columbia reporting, he said there has been less than a 1 percent increase in voter registration from 1988 levels. "I don't see registration being at all related to turnout," said David Bositis, senior research associate at the Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies, an organization that studies black political participation. He said that is because registration efforts are almost always performed by peripheral groups "outside the two major parties." Many of the newly registered voters are blacks living in big cities. "A lot of areas with the highest voter registration have been areas hardest hit by economic problems," said Sonia Jarvis, director of the National Coalition on Black Voter Participation. "But it's difficult to determine if discontent will lead to more voter participation or more people staying at home." Ms. Jarvis is certain black turnout will be up from 1988 but is not sure by how much. Mr. Bositis predicts it will be up significantly. In 1984 and 1988, he said, blacks represented 8 percent of the total general election votes. "This time, they will represent between 8 1/2 and 9 1/2 percent of the total, a 12 1/2 percent increase." A new poll by the Center for Political and Economic Studies showed that 75 percent of blacks surveyed said they supported Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton for president. That compared with only 7 percent for Mr. Perot and 6 percent for Mr. Bush. But Ms. Jarvis said it is uncertain whether all blacks who say they support Mr. Clinton will actually vote. "There's no question that none of the candidates has made an effort to address the concerns of black Americans," she said. She noted that black voter participation in 1992 Democratic primaries in "all the Southern states, the industrial Midwest and major urban areas was down 40 points" from 1988 levels. This article is copyright 1992 The Washington Times. Redistribution to other sites is not permitted except by arrangement with American Cybercasting Corporation. For more information, send-email to usa@AmeriCast.COM