Path: bloom-picayune.mit.edu!snorkelwacker.mit.edu!americast.com!americast.com!americast-post Newsgroups: americast.twt.news From: americast-post@AmeriCast.Com Organization: American Cybercasting Approved: americast-post@AmeriCast.com Subject: Russians, Arabs opt for Bush Date: Sun, 1 Nov 92 20:06:09 EST Message-ID: \SE A;CAMPAIGN '92 \HD Russians, Arabs opt for Bush \BY Gerald Nadler \CR THE WASHINGTON TIMES \DT MOSCOW MOSCOW - Many Russian officials share the sentiment of Ruslan Khasbulatov, but few have put it as bluntly: The parliament speaker says he hopes George Bush defeats Bill Clinton on Tuesday. Possible changes in the U.S. administration unsettle the Kremlin. Moscow veterans recall the jitters when President Bush took over from Ronald Reagan and announced a review of foreign policy. And Mr. Bush was a known political figure. "I don't think the Americans know Clinton themselves, so apprehension on the part of the Russians is understandable," said Ed Ivanyan, an analyst at the U.S.A.-Canada Institute think tank and author of a book on U.S. elections. The possibility of a Clinton presidency is also causing anxiety in Asia, where America's trading partners fear the Democrat would be more protectionist than President Bush, and in the Middle East, where Arab governments fear he would tilt more toward Israel in the peace talks. European governments, on the other hand, feel for the most part that a change of administration would bring few changes in policy, apart from a faster pullout of U.S. troops, which would be welcomed in at least some capitals. In Moscow, there is palpable fear about a Clinton victory based on doubts about his experience and concerns that he would devote less time to foreign policy. "Any first-term president would have to devote more time to the economy, especially if he wants to have a second term," Mr. Ivanyan said. "I am also sure he doesn't know a thing about foreign affairs. The most brilliant thing he did was select Albert Gore as his running mate." There is also a concern among Russian leaders that Mr. Clinton would be an activist president abroad. "Mr. Clinton is for a more visible U.S. ability to intervene," said a source with excellent links to the Russian government. Russia, he explained, does not need such confrontations at a time of domestic reforms. "The landlord [at the White House] now may not be very good, but at least we know him, we know his good and bad points," said the source, who has links to Vice President Alexander Rutskoi and the centrist Civic Union, an alliance of industry leaders. The source added that Russian leaders "think Clinton is weak, and a weak president is a dangerous one." Curiously, a number of people in the Civic Union have been pulling for independent candidate Ross Perot because he represents the idea that it is time to "get out of politics and into economics." Among the Russian nationalists, there is a widespread belief that whoever wins the election, Russia already has been ruined and reduced to simply doing Washington's bidding. Yuri Vlasov, a former Olympic weightlifting champion who has become a hero of the right, noted in this week's edition of Dyen, an ultranationalist newspaper, that Mr. Clinton recently said America must have the will to use its armed forces when necessary. "Mr. Clinton," Mr. Vlasov wrote, "hardly tries to disguise . . . that America presumes the right to invade any country as if international law and boundaries have no importance." One of the few leading politicians to speak out on the matter has been Mr. Khasbulatov, the embattled parliament speaker, who took time from a political showdown with President Boris Yeltsin last week to wish Mr. Bush an election victory. Others, while quietly favoring Mr. Bush, recall the words of former Foreign Ministry spokesman Gennady Gerasimov when he was asked which side the government favored in a certain foreign election. "The winning one," he said. ARABS FEAR TILT TOWARD ISRAEL The people of the Middle East do not relish the prospect of Bill Clinton becoming U.S. president in January. Almost all Arabs, and a surprisingly large number of Israelis, believe President Bush would support their interests in a second term in office much more than his Democratic challenger would. To the Arabs of Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf, Mr. Bush represents a savior, the man who defanged Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and showed that their long-term alliance with Washington was not without justification. To those in Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Egypt and among Palestinians, he is the man who pushed Israel hard enough to make the front-line Arab parties want to enter a peace process. One exception is Iraq, where Saddam Hussein's government, humiliated by Mr. Bush in the Gulf war, has scheduled a post-election "Bash Bush Festival" to be capped with a demonstration by 500,000 people if Mr. Clinton wins. Syrian President Hafez Assad, whose decision to negotiate with Israel is the key to the peace process, said recently he had heard things from Mr. Bush that he had not heard from any other U.S. president. Mr. Clinton, on the other hand, is perceived in the Arab world as one of the most pro-Israeli presidential candidates in years. His public statements that Israel should be the most powerful state in the region have not gone down well in Damascus or Cairo. "When the crunch comes, [Mr. Clinton] has always taken the pro-Israel side," said Mr. Clinton's own adviser, Steven Spiegel, in the latest issue of the Jerusalem Report. Yet Israeli pollster Hanoch Smith reports that even in Israel, the support for Mr. Clinton is not as great as might be expected. "Israelis seem to appreciate that Bush got things done," Mr. Smith said. "They like the job he did in Iraq, and they like the fact he got Syria to come to the table with them." EUROPEANS SEE FEW CHANGES Despite misgivings over some aspects of his economic program, most European governments see no major foreign policy changes coming from Mr. Clinton if he wins Tuesday's presidential election. Most analysts expect Mr. Clinton to concentrate mainly on domestic affairs, and many see this as no bad thing. With the possible exception of Britain, few countries in Europe seem likely to mourn Mr. Bush if he loses. "I cannot imagine that there would be a fundamental change in the area of foreign policy" under Mr. Clinton, a senior German government official said. The present Bush administration is ending amid a vicious dispute with the European Community over an agreement on world trade, centering on U.S. demands that European countries, especially France, reduce their farm subsidies. The EC Commission would like to solve the dispute before the presidential election, for fear that a settlement could otherwise be long delayed as a Clinton administration settles in. But that does not translate into support for Mr. Bush. "The big question is what happens to the U.S. economy - and whether Clinton will turn more protectionist if things don't improve. That may be a worry," said one EC source. French and German officials also expect Mr. Clinton to be less hostile than the Bush administration to their efforts to develop a common defense. Mr. Clinton believes the number of U.S. troops in Europe, which stood at more than 300,000 before the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, should be cut to 100,000, compared with a target of 150,000 after 1995 set by the Bush administration. In Britain, the ruling Conservatives have a long-standing sympathy for Republicans that even Mr. Clinton's Oxford University pedigree and professed love of England seem unlikely to erode. But analysts believe London needs good relations with whoever is elected president of its closest ally. ASIANS CONCERNED ABOUT TRADE In Asia, relations with the United States focus almost exclusively on trade, and that explains the uneasiness in many capitals at the prospect of a Clinton presidency. "In general, there is a fear that Clinton would be beholden to the Democratic Party's working-class base and more sympathetic to protectionist measures," said William Overmoe, a Seoul-based analyst. Trade officials and businessmen from New Delhi to Tokyo are consulting with U.S. lawyers and lobbyists to figure out who is advising Mr. Clinton on Asia and on possible changes in U.S. trading rules should he win. Mr. Clinton so far has taken a moderate line, distancing himself from the party's radical protectionists and portraying himself as a free but fair trader. But even as a moderate, Mr. Clinton, should he win Tuesday, is expected to wield the "301 stick" on Asian trading partners. Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Law calls for punitive sanctions against countries that unfairly block out U.S. imports. Chinese leaders are especially nervous about a Clinton victory after he said he would place human rights conditions on trade with China. President Bush has annually vetoed bills to limit China's most-favored-nation trading status with the United States. If a Sino-U.S. trade war should erupt, Hong Kong believes it will take heavy economic casualties. The Hong Kong stock market has been jittery for several weeks. In some quarters, however, the champagne corks will pop if Mr. Clinton wins. In Malaysia, for example, officials resent Mr. Bush and former Secretary of State James A. Baker III because of U.S. efforts to nix a Malaysian initiative to form an Asian trading bloc without the United States. * Mike Breen in Seoul contributed to this article, which is based in part on wire service reports. This article is copyright 1992 The Washington Times. Redistribution to other sites is not permitted except by arrangement with American Cybercasting Corporation. For more information, send-email to usa@AmeriCast.COM