Path: bloom-picayune.mit.edu!snorkelwacker.mit.edu!americast.com!americast.com!americast-post Newsgroups: americast.twt.news From: americast-post@AmeriCast.Com Organization: American Cybercasting Approved: americast-post@AmeriCast.com Subject: Headline Article Date: Sun, 1 Nov 92 20:06:09 EST Message-ID: \SE A;NATION;INSIDE POLITICS \BY FROM WIRE DISPATCHES AND STAFF REPORTS ALMOST OVER Tip sheet: For those about to wager on the outcome of Tuesday's presidential election, it may be useful to reflect on the state of play 12 years ago. Up to the election, most major polls showed a tossup in the popular vote. The opinion surveys did not catch the movement in a volatile electorate in the final days before the levers were pulled. The majority of those levers moved for Ronald Reagan. When it was over, the former California governor had a sweeping triumph that ousted the Carter administration and stunned the Democratic Party. Mr. Reagan won 51 percent of the vote, while President Carter received 41 percent. John B. Anderson, the independent presidential candidate, got 7 percent. Even the GOP was surprised when it took control of the Senate. Of course, there is one other precedent you may wish to consider. In 1976, an incumbent GOP president was in a tight race on election eve after struggling back heroically from poll readings that had seemed to place him out of contention. But on Election Day, Democrat Jimmy Carter had just 27 electoral votes more than the minimum needed to defeat Gerald Ford. Actually, Mr. Ford won more states (27) than the victor (23). The popular vote: Mr. Carter 51 percent; Mr. Ford, 48. Moral: If you are betting the farm on this election, forget the polls and try the tea leaves. KEMP VS. BUCHANAN In a last-minute campaign stop in Texas, HUD Secretary Jack Kemp criticized his party's focus on "family values" and denounced a convention speech by Pat Buchanan. According to the Dallas Morning News, Mr. Kemp observed: "The answer to L.A. is not more guns, it's not more prisons, as Pat Buchanan said. . . . He sounded like he wanted to line people up against the wall and shoot them." Buchanan aides responded, "Kemp's statements are false, self-serving and badly timed." Mr. Buchanan's manager and sister, Bay, said, "Kemp should really stop pursuing his personal ambitions for 1996 and instead focus on re-electing President Bush in 1992." But the newspaper noted that Mr. Kemp "is one of the few Cabinet members to predict publicly that the [GOP] ticket will return." Mr. Kemp added: "The convention was overly stressing family values. Creating a better economy is the one thing government can do. It cannot change the values of its people. It can strengthen values, but it can't change them." GINGRICH STRUGGLES AGAIN House Minority Whip Newt Gingrich finds himself struggling against another aggressive challenger in a redrawn congressional district. It is new territory for Mr. Gingrich, the sharp-tongued gadfly of the Republican right who abandoned his old district south of Atlanta when it was disassembled by a Democratic legislature in the post-census redistricting. Republicans dominate the new district, but Democrat Tony Center is hitting the seven-term incumbent on bad checks and House perks after Mr. Gingrich narrowly survived a challenge in the primary. The congressman told some students last week: "This has been, frankly, the most miserable, meanest campaign I have ever been in. It is sickening, and for at least two days last week I frankly thought I would quit." According to the Associated Press, Mr. Center, 43, who spoke to the same group later, told reporters: "That's the first good idea I've ever heard Newt express." Mr. Gingrich, 49, won the GOP nomination by a scant 980 votes against little-known Herman Clark, who ridiculed the congressman for his 22 overdrafts at the now-defunct House bank, his support for a pay raise and his use of a taxpayer-financed, chauffeured limousine he relinquished in April. Mr. Gingrich's slim margin of victory wasn't his first brush with defeat. He beat Democrat David Worley by just 974 votes in the 1990 general election. DIE HARD SUPPORTER The Die Hard man is taking over the Terminator's turf. Bruce Willis, tough-guy star of the fast-action "Die Hard" movies, turned up on the Bush trail in Ohio last week and spent two days campaigning - cowboy boots, baggy jeans and all. Until now, muscleman Arnold Schwarzenegger, star of "The Terminator" and "Predator," has been Mr. Bush's best buddy in Hollywood, showing up occasionally at the White House and on the campaign trail. Mr. Schwarzenegger was there for Mr. Bush in Columbus on Wednesday. But so was Mr. Willis. And Mr. Willis stuck with Mr. Bush when Mr. Schwarzenegger left. Mr. Bush explained how he acquired his new traveling companion: "Bruce Willis called me up and he said, 'I have had it with the United States Congress.' And the polls weren't so hot then, and he said, 'I want to help.' . . . I am very, very grateful to him." Mr. Willis sought out reporters on Air Force One to explain why he's supporting the president. He said that "listening to Bill Clinton and what he has to say" is the main reason he likes Mr. Bush. RACE FLARES IN S.C. The issue of race has wedged its way into another Senate campaign in the South, but in this case the Republican candidate is trying to back away. Tommy Hartnett, seeking to oust veteran Democratic Sen. Ernest Hollings, has distanced himself from a Republican mailer that portrays Mr. Hollings as a supporter of racial hiring quotas. "I know nothing. . . . I saw fliers with a bunch of circles on it. . . . If I had to approve anything that even hinted of any kind of racism, it would not have been acceptable to me," Mr. Hartnett said. The mailer includes criticism of Mr. Hollings for voting "for Ted Kennedy's racial quota bill that would either force businesses to establish race-based hiring quotas or face costly litigation." Mr. Hollings said last week that he does not support quotas, telling reporters: "Never, never special rights. No quotas. No special treatment." ASIAN SURGE Eight Asian-Americans are running strong races for Congress, including candidates hoping to become the first federal lawmakers born in the Philippines, South Korea and China. The political rise of Asian-Americans comes in a year when blacks, Hispanics and women are running in record numbers for a Congress dominated by white males. Currently, five Asian-Americans serve in the House and Senate. Of the eight running, AP says all but one are Democrats and none has the disadvantage of facing an incumbent. The only Asian-American congressional candidate outside Hawaii and California is S.B. Woo, who was born in Shanghai and escaped Maoism with his family, emigrating to the United States in 1949. As Delaware's Democratic lieutenant governor, Mr. Woo was the first Asian-American to hold such a high office in any state and now is challenging GOP Gov. Michael Castle in the state's only congressional district. If Mr. Woo wins, he would join Hawaii Sen. Daniel Akaka as the only Chinese-American members of Congress. Chinese-Americans have avoided involvement in U.S. politics partly out of a cultural "fear of rejection," Mr. Woo said, and partly because they lack unity and don't want to rekindle old rivalries that divided their homeland. ****BOX YOUR TAX DOLLARS AT WORK? A House conference committee granted "$1.5 million to Cibola County in New Mexico for a multi-agency visitors center to provide economic benefits for the western part of New Mexico." Source: Congressional Record ****BOX ON THE ROAD Today * President Bush in La Crosse, Wis.; Auburn Hills, Mich.; Newark, N.J.; Bridgeport, Conn.; and Madison, N.J. * Vice President Dan Quayle in Huntington, W.Va.; Portsmouth, Ohio; Hopkinsville, Ky.; and Metairie, La. * Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton in Cincinnati; East Rutherford, N.J.; and Philadelphia. * Sen. Al Gore of Tennessee in Eau Claire, Wis.; Kalamazoo, Mich.; East Rutherford, N.J.; and Raleigh, N.C. * Independent candidate Ross Perot in Long Beach and Santa Clara, Calif. Tomorrow * Bush in Houston. * Quayle in Chattanooga, Tenn.; Columbus, Ohio; Saginaw, Mich.; Wausau, Wis.; Chicago; and Fort Wayne and Huntington, Ind. * Clinton in Philadelphia. * Gore in Carthage, Tenn. * Perot in Dallas and Fort Worth, Texas. Tuesday * Bush in Houston. * Gore in Carthage, Tenn., and Little Rock, Ark. * Quayle in Fort Wayne and Indianapolis, Ind. * Perot in Dallas. * Independent vice presidential candidate James Stockdale in San Diego and Dallas. Wednesday * No events scheduled. Thursday * No events scheduled. Friday * No events scheduled. Saturday * No events scheduled. This article is copyright 1992 The Washington Times. Redistribution to other sites is not permitted except by arrangement with American Cybercasting Corporation. For more information, send-email to usa@AmeriCast.COM