Path: bloom-picayune.mit.edu!snorkelwacker.mit.edu!americast.com!americast.com!americast-post Newsgroups: americast.twt.news From: americast-post@AmeriCast.Com Organization: American Cybercasting Approved: americast-post@AmeriCast.com Subject: Clinton's promises may trap him Date: Sun, 1 Nov 92 20:06:09 EST Message-ID: \SE A;NATION;CAMPAIGN '92;NEWS ANALYSIS \HD Clinton's promises may trap him \BY J. Jennings Moss \CR THE WASHINGTON TIMES If Bill Clinton is elected, his trip from Capitol Hill to the White House on Inauguration Day will be lined with the high expectations he fostered in a campaign rich with promises. There are the ones fraught with political land mines, such as slashing the deficit in half over four years, making sure all Americans have health care and reforming the education system. Then there are those pledges the Democrat should have no problems keeping: requiring companies to give workers unpaid leave in family emergencies, imposing a waiting period for handgun purchases and allowing people to register to vote when they get their licenses to drive. The essential Clinton promises are packaged in his "Putting People First" document, which offers his vision for America. While much of the agenda is couched in general terms - his administration would "encourage" or "support" certain policies - it locks the nominee into many specific actions. "He's staked his presidency on turning the economy around," said Howard University professor Ronald Walters, who said Mr. Clinton would have a "reasonable" chance of accomplishing his program. "He's got to perform, and in four years that's what he's going to be judged by." Most analysts say that if a President Clinton running for re-election in 1996 could point to an economic revival and show he worked on the other problems he highlighted, he would not be held to account for every promise made in 1992. But if the deficit shoots up or the nation is in another recession, look for his rivals to pour through "Putting People First" and make him accountable for every pledge. "The Washington bureaucracy is enthusiastic about a Clinton win, most of them. They have very high expectations, and I think they're going to be disappointed," said James Thurber, director of American University's Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies. The displeasure, Mr. Thurber said, will stem from Mr. Clinton being more conservative than most Democrats and less inclined to follow the will of his party's special-interest constituencies. Other analysts disagree about the relationship between Mr. Clinton and those who move along Washington's corridors of power, saying it will be closer to a friendly marriage than a skeptical acquaintance. "He's made a lot of promises to a lot of groups on the spending side. He's promised the mayors a lot, organized labor a lot, the teachers a lot, various business groups a lot. It seems to me, if he's going to govern successfully, he's going to have to set some priorities," said Stephen Moore of the Cato Institute, who added that interest groups will look at Mr. Clinton as a "messiah." The list of promises is being used by the Bush-Quayle campaign as a weapon against Mr. Clinton. "His worst deception yet . . . is saying with a straight face he can pay for his promises without taxing the little guy," said Mary Matalin, Bush-Quayle deputy campaign manager. "If Bill Clinton plans on keeping his word - a first in this campaign - he begins by telling us which of the following promises he would eliminate from his 'Putting People First' program." A Bush-Quayle release lists 56 promises in Mr. Clinton's agenda among which he would have to choose to keep his grand promise of not raising taxes on the middle class. Clinton spokeswoman Avis LaVelle said none of the promises will be easy to keep, but she said Mr. Clinton is making a commitment. "You have to walk it like you talk it. Nobody in their right mind would provide their opponents, present or future, the club with which to beat them over the head," she said with a laugh. "So you know if he's promising these things, he's going to work night and day to accomplish them. To do any less is to be suicidal." The Heritage Foundation's David Mason said gauging what Mr. Clinton can accomplish requires a look at his political personality. "Whenever he has run into political hot water, he backs off," Mr. Mason said. "Whether it's a high-profile issue like health care or gay rights, you can bet that if the program runs into trouble, he's not likely to expend a lot of political capital." Besides the dangers in Mr. Clinton's cure for the economy - halving the deficit by raising taxes on the rich and cutting defense spending while spurring investment through public programs - analysts see two promises likely to hinder a Clinton presidency: * Health care reform. The Clinton plan would guarantee all Americans basic health benefits provided either by employers or through a publicly subsidized program. Businesses would be required to participate. "While everyone understands and realizes the health care system is in shambles, . . . I think the special interests and the various lobbies and even various Democratic members of Congress are so entrenched, I think it will be very difficult to form a consensus," said John Sturdivant, president of the American Federation of Government Employees, which has endorsed Mr. Clinton. * Education reform. In a Clinton administration, the federal government would create a national examination system to measure progress and set national standards, would give schools greater flexibility in spending federal dollars and would allow parents to choose the public schools their children attend. The final question is what from a Clinton presidency will satisfy the public. "It seems to me that the American people possess a learned skepticism about campaign promises and performances, so people are not going to hold any of the candidates' feet to the fire," Georgetown University professor Stephen Wayne said. "What people are concerned with more are perceived successes." ****BOX CLINTON WHITE HOUSE Bill Clinton has made many promises about what he'll do if he's elected. Here are the major items in his manifesto, "Putting People First": * Cut the deficit in half within four years. * Increase the earned-income tax credit to make up the difference between a family's earnings and the poverty level; give middle-class taxpayers a choice between a tax credit for children and a significant reduction in their income tax; increase taxes on those making more than $200,000. * Give people two years on welfare, then require those who can work to get jobs in the private sector or do community service; create education and training programs to get people off welfare. * Create a Rebuild America Fund with a $20 billion federal investment every year for four years. * Sign into law the Freedom of Choice Act, which recognizes the abortion rights of women; urge Congress to allow federally funded abortions; repeal the "gag" rule; oppose any federal attempt to limit abortions. * Put 100,000 police officers on the streets and expand community policing; create a National Police Corps; establish community boot camps to discipline first-time, nonviolent offenders; impose a waiting period on the purchase of handguns and ban assault weapons. * Provide a targeted investment tax credit to encourage investment in new manufacturing plants; offer a 50 percent tax exclusion to those who make long-term investments in new businesses; make permanent the research-and-development tax credit. * Give parents the right to choose their children's public schools; fully fund Head Start and the Women, Infants and Children program; reduce class sizes. * Create a National Service Trust Fund to let college students pay back their loans based on what they make or through community service; develop a national apprentice-style program that offers skills to people who don't go to college. * Guarantee every American basic health benefits; create a health-standards board to set budget targets and outline benefits; eliminate tax breaks for drug companies that raise their prices. * Reduce the White House staff by 25 percent; cut 100,000 federal jobs through attrition; require 3 percent, across-the-board administrative savings in federal agencies; ask Congress to give the president the line-item veto. * Increase the standard for average fuel economy from the current 27.5 miles per gallon to 40 mpg by 2000 and 45 mpg by 2015; convert the federal automobile fleet to natural-gas-powered vehicles; prohibit drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska. * Cut defense spending by $60 billion more over five years than the Bush administration has proposed; reduce U.S. troops in Europe from 75,000 to 100,000; have 10 aircraft carriers instead of 12; create retraining programs for displaced defense workers. * Create a national network of community development banks; create urban enterprise zones; pass a more progressive Community Reinvestment Act; allow cities to use 15 percent of their federal aid to meet their own priorities. 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