Path: bloom-picayune.mit.edu!snorkelwacker.mit.edu!americast.com!americast.com!americast-post Newsgroups: americast.twt.news From: americast-post@AmeriCast.Com Organization: American Cybercasting Approved: americast-post@AmeriCast.com Subject: Catholics might decide race in crucial states Date: Sun, 1 Nov 92 20:06:09 EST Message-ID: \SE A;NATION;CAMPAIGN '92 \HD Catholics might decide race in crucial states \BY Larry Witham \CR THE WASHINGTON TIMES Bill Clinton is likely to get a slim majority of the nation's Catholic vote, but that diverse voting bloc may swing toward President Bush in key battleground states, analysts said. The Catholic vote will be crucial in Michigan, Ohio and New Jersey and could play a significant role in Texas and Pennsylvania. "It's really Michigan and Ohio where the big battle is going to be," said John Green, director of the Ray C. Bliss Institute of Applied Politics at the University of Akron in Ohio. Catholics traditionally voted for Democrats until the rise of the "Reagan Democrats" in 1980 and 1984. Today, Catholic voters are diverse. More Catholics who grew up in the 1960s are voting, and their "Catholic issues" are not abortion and school choice, said David Leege, a professor of government at the University of Notre Dame. "They define politics in terms of a peace-and-justice agenda," Mr. Leege said. "They feel the Democrats have been more faithful to that than the Republicans." But both analysts said abortion, school choice and "trust" could swing Catholics in Mr. Bush's favor, including some put off by Mr. Clinton's Southern background. "Bill Clinton has had some difficulty appealing to Catholics because he is such a Baptist," Mr. Green said. Mr. Clinton's speech at Notre Dame, he said, tried to calm those fears, show his moderation and call attention to his education at Jesuit-run Georgetown University. Mr. Green said the Catholic populations around Cleveland and Detroit will be the swing votes in Ohio and Michigan. "Catholics in Cleveland and Detroit trust the guy [Mr. Bush]," Mr. Green said. To win Catholic votes, Mr. Leege said, Mr. Bush must attract many of the "disaffected" voters. They are older, blue-collar workers who feel the economic pinch. "They are the people who are up for grabs, and there are a lot of Catholics in there," Mr. Leege said. While the disaffected voters formed 9 percent of the electorate in 1988, they are 17 percent this year, he said. In 1988 half the disaffected voters chose Mr. Bush, Mr. Leege said; this year they favor Mr. Clinton by 60 percent to 40 percent, according to polls. The nation's Catholic bishops have made nonpartisan appeals for their flock to take civic responsibility and vote, and some Catholic lay groups are getting out the message. The Catholic Campaign for America has placed 30-second television spots, which began Friday and will run through tomorrow, saying what Catholics stand for: protection for workers, right to life, moral standards, school choice and care for the needy. "When you vote, vote your values," said the ad, which will run in strong Catholic areas such as Philadelphia, New York, Boston and Chicago. "Particularly in Pennsylvania, the Catholic vote is going to be important," said Thomas V. Wykes Jr., executive director of the campaign. Mr. Leege said that while Republicans have played up school choice, they have played down the abortion issue. "So Catholics are beginning to wonder," he said. "The net effect is that the Catholics are looking for a broader range of issues." Former Education Secretary William Bennett, chairman of Catholics for Bush-Quayle, said the Bush campaign erred by "starting on family values and then backing off. And so people aren't clear." He said Catholics should consider this: "Pro-choice is not just what Mr. Clinton believes; it's what will happen. Do you think he will veto a Freedom of Choice Act? Of course he won't." This article is copyright 1992 The Washington Times. Redistribution to other sites is not permitted except by arrangement with American Cybercasting Corporation. For more information, send-email to usa@AmeriCast.COM