Path: bloom-picayune.mit.edu!snorkelwacker.mit.edu!americast.com!americast.com!americast-post Newsgroups: americast.twt.news From: americast-post@AmeriCast.Com Organization: American Cybercasting Approved: americast-post@AmeriCast.com Subject: Suspense reigns in races for Hill Date: Mon, 2 Nov 92 15:45:13 EST Message-ID: \SE A;CAMPAIGN '92 \HD Suspense reigns in races for Hill \BY Major Garrett \CR THE WASHINGTON TIMES A staggering number of congressional races - at least 12 in the Senate and upward of 140 in the House - are still up for grabs with one day of campaigning left. And both parties concede there may be upsets in other races. The battle for the 103rd Congress is the most dramatic and surprising since 1948, when Harry S. Truman's eye-popping upset of Republican Thomas Dewey swept out the "do-nothing" Republican Congress. "This is as unpredictable a congressional season as I can remember," said Spencer Abraham, co-chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. "We've got these people shaken up," said Lionel Kunst, co-chairman of the Coalition to End the Permanent Congress, a grass-roots movement to make congressional elections more competitive. "It's never going to be the same. This thing isn't an aberration." Polls show the highest level of anti-incumbent sentiment ever. Voters are upset with the House bank and post office scandals, the sour economy and publicity about congressional perks. National surveys show more than 70 percent of the voters are dissatisfied with Congress and more than half are ready to select someone new for their congressman or senator. Jack Gargan, president of Throw the Hypocritical Rascals Out, or THRO, will spend election night on the front yard of his Tampa, Fla., home with his THRO-mometer. It's a huge billboard that he uses to count the number of incumbents who have been defeated or retired. Mr. Gargan is expecting more than 150 new members will be elected to the House. The nation is guaranteed at least 91 new members. Fifty-three incumbents have retired, 19 were defeated in primaries, and 13 are seeking higher office. There are five incumbent-vs.-incumbent matchups, and one member, Rep. Ted Weiss, New York Democrat, died this year. One thing is certain. More women, blacks and Hispanics will be coming to Washington next year than ever before. Redistricting to meet requirements of the Voting Rights Act created 11 new majority-black and six new majority-Hispanic districts. All but one of these districts are expected to be won by Democrats. More than 100 women are seeking House seats, and the number of female members could rise from 20 to 50. Many high-profile incumbents are in jeopardy. They include: House Minority Whip Newt Gingrich, Georgia Republican; Rep. Vic Fazio of California, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee; House Caucus Chairman Steny Hoyer, Maryland Democrat; Rep. Les Aspin, Wisconsin Democrat, chairman of the Armed Services Committee; Sen. Alfonse D'Amato, New York Republican; Sen. John Glenn, Ohio Democrat; Sen. Bob Packwood, Oregon Republican; Sen. Ernest Hollings, South Carolina Democrat; and Sen. Bob Kasten, Wisconsin Republican. Of the 46 congressmen who bounced more than 100 checks at the House bank, only 16 are considered favorites to win re-election. Twelve have retired, eight lost in the primaries, and 10 are in races too close to call. In the Senate, eight new seats will be filled because of seven retirements and the death of Sen. Quentin N. Burdick, North Dakota Democrat. One of the many quirks this year has been how rapidly voter moods have shifted. In some cases, challengers who looked unbeatable are now threatened. * Carol Moseley Braun's big lead has evaporated in the Illinois race with Republican Rich Williamson for the Senate. * Judd Greg, once a clear favorite to succeed retiring Sen. Warren Rudman of New Hampshire, is in danger of losing to Democratic businessman John Rauh. * Democratic Rep. Barbara Boxer's double-digit lead over conservative television commentator Bruce Herschensohn has disappeared, and the two are in a dead heat to succeed retiring Sen. Alan Cranston of California. "We have more races that are still in play than we've ever had," said Jeb Hensarling, executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. He said 12 races are too close to call and three or four more could become competitive in the closing hours. "This is totally unprecedented," he said. The tightening of the presidential race has improved GOP prospects down the ballot, but Mr. Hensarling is shying away from any predictions. "The crystal ball is still fuzzy," he said. ****BOX CLOSE CONGRESSIONAL RACES SENATE California: Republican Bruce Herschensohn vs. Democratic Rep. Barbara Boxer. Boxer's 22-point lead has vanished and race now a dead heat. Illinois: Democrat Carol Moseley Braun vs. Republican Rich Williamson. Braun's 30-point lead has shrunk to single digits in some polls. Look for hidden support for Williamson among white voters uncomfortable with sending first black woman to the Senate. Wisconsin: Republican Sen. Bob Kasten vs. state Sen. Russell Feingold. Kasten has fought back from a 20-plus-point deficit, but the Democrat holds slight edge. Oregon: Republican Sen. Bob Packwood vs. Rep. Les AuCoin, Democrat. Packwood, the ranking Republican on the Senate Finance Committee, is under intense fire but challenger is tainted by bounced checks. South Carolina: Democratic Sen. Ernest Hollings vs. former Rep. Tommy Hartnett, Republican. Support for Hollings is soft, but challenger has yet to draw even. North Carolina: Democratic Sen. Terry Sanford vs. Republican Lauch Faircloth. The senator's recent heart surgery raised doubts about his ability to fulfill a six-year term, but Faircloth has run an uninspired campaign. Race is dead even. New York: Republican Sen. Alfonse D'Amato vs. New York Attorney General Robert Abrams, Democrat. The senator has rebounded after Abrams called him a fascist and has more money for the homestretch. Race is dead even. Georgia: House Republican Whip Newt Gingrich vs. Democrat Tom Center. Gingrich won narrowly in 1990 and in this year's primary. His redrawn district is brand new and Democrats are throwing everything behind his challenger. Wisconsin: Democratic Rep. Les Aspin vs. Republican Mark Neumann. This race has gone from walk-over to dead heat in the last two weeks. Aspin is chairman of Armed Services Committee and has been hit for excessive foreign travel. California: Democratic Rep. Vic Fazio vs. Republican H.L. "Bill" Richardson. Fazio is chairman of Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and faces the toughest re-election of his career. This article is copyright 1992 The Washington Times. 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