Path: bloom-picayune.mit.edu!snorkelwacker.mit.edu!americast.com!americast.com!americast-post Newsgroups: americast.twt.news From: americast-post@AmeriCast.Com Organization: American Cybercasting Approved: americast-post@AmeriCast.com Subject: Foreign problems hit wallets at home Date: Sun, 8 Nov 92 15:50:37 EST Message-ID: \SE A \HD Foreign problems hit wallets at home \BY Warren Strobel \CR THE WASHINGTON TIMES ****ECONOMIC ISSUES SUCH AS TRADE ARE LIKELY TO TOP THE NEW ADMINISTRATION'S OVERSEAS CONCERNS**** What is the top foreign policy issue facing President-elect Bill Clinton? The U.S. economy and related trade issues, three of four foreign policy experts said in a post-election survey by The Washington Times that overturned old assumptions about the line between domestic and foreign policy. Arms proliferation, the future of Russia and the Middle East also ranked high among the concerns of the experts, who ranged from former U.N. Ambassador Jeanne Kirkpatrick to Lee Hamilton, Indiana Democrat and incoming chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. But most agreed with Clinton adviser Robert E. Hunter, vice president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who said, "The No. 1 foreign policy issue is getting the economy right." Though the economy has always been considered a domestic issue, the experts said the nation's economic health more than anything else will determine how much the new administration can achieve beyond America's borders. And increasingly, they said, foreign policy decisions on issues such as trade and the environment will affect the lives of Americans at home. "The competitive standing of the United States is going to be a major foreign policy concern in the years ahead," Mr. Hamilton said. "Trade agreements are no longer just trade agreements." Mr. Clinton may be fortunate enough not to inherit any major international crises. Problems are simmering from Russia to the Balkans, the Persian Gulf and beyond, but none is an immediate threat to the United States or its allies. If that situation holds, the new president will have breathing space to attempt the domestic renewal he has promised. "I am going to focus like a laser beam on this economy, and foreign policy will come into play in part as it affects the economy," Mr. Clinton said in an interview Wednesday on ABC-TV. But the nature of the problems ahead was shown the next day when the Bush administration announced a 200 percent tariff on European white wines and certain other products in a long-running dispute over agricultural subsidies. The action, effective Dec. 5, raised fears of a trade war between Western Europe and the United States that could affect the standard of living on both sides of the Atlantic. The European Community has promised to retaliate. The dispute may further hamper the 6-year-old effort to achieve a new global trade agreement under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. Battles over subsidies have stalled those talks. And Mr. Clinton could be left with a complex conflict over international trade. "Since it is improbable that [the dispute with Europe] will be resolved by Jan. 20, Bill Clinton will have to deal with that one as soon as he comes to office," said Francois Heisbourg, former director of the prestigious International Institute for Strategic Studies, based in London. Mr. Heisbourg said that because the administration's authority from Congress for "fast track" GATT negotiations expires early next year, Mr. Clinton has two choices: He can accelerate the talks, something the Europeans, especially the French, are unlikely to go along with; or he can seek an extension from Congress. Mrs. Kirkpatrick, who served as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations during the Reagan administration, said Mr. Clinton could face some major trade disputes. "One of the principal problems of the Clinton administration will be to work out mutually acceptable trading arrangements with our major partners" that are "less unfavorable to the United States," she said. After the economy, the most frequently mentioned foreign policy challenge for the new administration was the successful support of democracy and free markets in Russia under President Boris Yeltsin. Unfortunately, the analysts said, Mr. Clinton and his aides will have little control over Russia's future. Former Communists, ultranationalists and others have grown increasingly bold in trying to stop Mr. Yeltsin's push toward a market economy. The conflict may come to a head at the Dec. 1 meeting of the conservative superparliament, the Congress of People's Deputies. "Reform is under heavy fire today in Russia, and there's no guarantee that Yeltsin is going to succeed," said Mr. Hamilton, who has been mentioned as a possible secretary of state in the Clinton administration. "Whether or not the reforms succeed or fail ultimately is going to depend primarily on [the Russians]," he said. But while the United States can help only on the margins, "the margins can be very important there," he said. Mr. Clinton has supported the Bush administration's package of aid to Russia and other former Soviet republics, although he accused President Bush of moving too slowly to help Mr. Yeltsin. Whatever happens in Moscow, Mr. Yeltsin will likely lose some of his ability to compromise with the U.S. president. Such an outcome would make it harder for Mr. Clinton to help. Many of the other problems identified by the experts are demons unleashed by the Cold War's end: turmoil in the Middle East; a struggle for dominance in Central Asia; the spread of arms and nuclear weapons technology; renewed ethnic conflicts around the globe. Each is a long-term problem that will require a coherent strategy and deft diplomacy. "The truth is that we don't have any absolutely overriding, outstanding issue except the economy," said Mrs. Kirkpatrick, now a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. But she pointed to the war in former Yugoslavia as a problem that could grow into a crisis if Serbian designs turn to Kosovo and its ethnically Albanian population. A move in Kosovo could draw other nations into the conflict. If Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic threatens Kosovo, Mr. Clinton should "give the ultimatum to Milosevic that should have been given a long time ago," said Mrs. Kirkpatrick, who advocated "sharply focused bombing" if necessary. Mr. Clinton has hinted he might be more willing than Mr. Bush to intervene but has expressed concern that the Balkans could be a quagmire. In all these areas, Mr. Clinton will have less freedom than any president since World War II to make foreign policy, the experts said. During the Cold War, foreign policy primarily meant containing the Soviet Union, and Congress generally deferred to the White House and the Pentagon on what was seen as a security issue. But if economic issues take precedence in foreign affairs, Mr. Clinton and his successors will have to listen more to domestic voices in their policy deliberations. "Congress will be more engaged in foreign affairs than it has [been] for a long time," said Mr. Hunter of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. And without the polarizing effect of the Cold War, the sides of any debate may be less obvious than in the past. "People are crossing party lines and ideological lines," Mr. Hunter said. ***PHOTOS/BOX LOOKING AHEAD The Washington Times asked a group of foreign policy experts to list the top foreign policy challenges facing the Clinton administration. They all included trade or the U.S. economy on the list. Rep. Lee Hamilton, Indiana Democrat, incoming chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. 1. The former Soviet Union, especially Russia, where "there is no guarantee" that Yeltsin will suceed. 2. Arms proliferation, including weapons of mass destruction and conventional weapons. 3. Trade, including the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and global trade talks. 4. U.S. relationships in Asia, especially Japan and China. Francois Heisbourg, former director of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies and now chairman of its French Committee. 1. The deadlocked world trade talks known as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). 2. The Middle East, including Arab-Israeli peace talks and violence in Iraqi Kurdistan. 3. Proliferation of nuclear arms and other weapons of mass destruction. 4. Relations with Western Europe, including the future of NATO and U.S. troops in Europe. Jeane Kirkpatrick, former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations; senior fellow, American Enterprise Institute: 1. As the sign in Clinton-Gore campaign headquarters said, "The economy, stupid." 2. Support for democratic forces in Russia. 3. The Balkans, where violence will continue to spread. 4. World trade and the increased threat of major trade disputes. Robert E. Hunter, vice president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies and foreign policy adviser to the Clinton-Gore campaign. 1. "The No. 1 foreign policy issue is getting the [U.S.] economy right." 2. Spurring global economic growth. 3. Ensuring that Russia's political and economic reforms succeed. 4. Pursuing the correct policy toward the Middle East, particularly the Persian Gulf and Central Asia. (Nos. 2, 3 & 4 are not necessarily in order of priority) ****PHOTO/MAP/BOX GLOBAL CHALLENGES When President-elect Bill Clinton takes office Jan. 20, he will face a host of global and regional foreign policy problems. Trade: Tensions are rising with major U.S. trading partners such as Western Europe, Japan and China. The outcome of global and two-way trade talks will shape relations with these nations and affect the U.S. economy. Russia: President Boris Yeltsin appears headed toward heightened confrontation with conservatives opposed to economic reforms and cooperation with the United States. The Persian Gulf: The oil-rich Gulf remains unstable, with Iraq's Saddam Hussein still in power and Iran flexing its muscles. Arab-Israeli dispute: Arabs and Israelis are impatient that year-old peace talks have produced little concrete progress. The Balkans: Violence in former Yugoslavia continues, and could spread, drawing in outside nations. East Asia: The U.S. military presence is waning, raising prospect of friction between China, Japan, Korea and other big powers. This article is copyright 1992 The Washington Times. Redistribution to other sites is not permitted except by arrangement with American Cybercasting Corporation. For more information, send-email to usa@AmeriCast.COM