Path: bloom-picayune.mit.edu!snorkelwacker.mit.edu!americast.com!americast.com!americast-post Newsgroups: americast.twt.news From: americast-post@AmeriCast.Com Organization: American Cybercasting Approved: americast-post@AmeriCast.com Subject: Turnout likely to decide Senate runoff in Georgia Date: Sat, 14 Nov 92 16:22:11 EST Message-ID: \SE A;NATION \SS (WS) \HD Turnout likely to decide Senate runoff in Georgia \BY Jeffrey L. Katz \CR CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY Georgia Democratic Sen. Wyche Fowler and Republican Paul Coverdell both went to church the Sunday after the general election. Mr. Fowler, whose political fortunes depend largely on how many blacks go to the polls, was among the faithful at the predominantly black Salem Baptist Church in Atlanta. And Mr. Coverdell, who enjoys strong support from the Christian Right, headed for the First Baptist Church of Atlanta, a conservative and predominantly white bastion. For Mr. Fowler and Mr. Coverdell, Election '92 is not over. Mr. Fowler fell short of an outright majority Nov. 3, so the two will meet in a runoff Nov. 24. The outcome of the runoff is expected to turn on turnout, which is certain to fall sharply from the 72 percent of registered voters who went to the polls Nov. 3. Some estimate that it could be as low as 20 percent or even 15 percent. Mr. Fowler, a former House member, was first elected to the Senate in 1986 with 51 percent of the vote. Black voters supplied his margin of victory. On Nov. 3, Mr. Fowler received 49 percent, again relying heavily on black precincts. Turnout in these precincts was high, as the state increased the number of blacks in its House delegation from one to three. But there will be nothing special to draw out black voters this time. Mr. Coverdell, a former state legislator and Peace Corps director, received 48 percent on Nov. 3. Libertarian Jim Hudson garnered 3 percent. "The expectations have shifted," said Merle Black, a political science professor at Emory University. Until shortly before the general election, Mr. Black noted, "this was a contest Fowler was supposed to win pretty handily." Now, however, Mr. Coverdell may have an edge. Mr. Hudson has endorsed him over Mr. Fowler, and the local chapter of United We Stand America, backers of independent presidential candidate Ross Perot, has done the same. If Mr. Fowler loses, the Democrats will not have managed any gain in the Senate despite Bill Clinton's presidential triumph. Republicans, who late in the campaign had feared a loss of three seats, could say instead that they had held the line. Mr. Fowler captured about 60 percent of the votes in Fulton County (Atlanta) and the populous suburb of De Kalb County. But Mr. Coverdell showed similar strength in the predominantly GOP suburban counties of Cobb and Gwinnett. Mr. Coverdell also ate into Mr. Fowler's strength in the north Georgia mountains; a visit by Mr. Gore to counties dominated by the Chattanooga media market might serve Mr. Fowler well. Mr. Fowler, who outspent Mr. Coverdell by more than 2-to-1 in the general election, will probably also have a financial edge in the runoff. This article is copyright 1992 The Washington Times. Redistribution to other sites is not permitted except by arrangement with American Cybercasting Corporation. For more information, send-email to usa@AmeriCast.COM