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Subject: ARIZONA (8 electoral votes)<
Date: Sun, 1 Nov 92 09:14:31 EST
Message-ID: <24.1992Nov1.091431@AmeriCast.com>

ARIZONA (8 electoral votes)<

Republicans were worried enough about Barry Goldwater's state to
send Ronald Reagan in for a quick visit Friday and Democrats were
encouraged enough to mount a late media campaign. As in the rest
of the West, Perot is a factor causing Bush problems. But if Bush
cannot win here, he can forget about the White House. Sen. John
McCain (R), one of the "Keating Five," has shaken off the politi-
cal threat of that affair and is enjoying an easy race against
civic activist Claire Sargent (D) and controversial former gover-
nor Evan Mecham, a conservative Republican running as an indepen-
dent. Rep. John J. Rhodes III (R) just squeaked through for re-
nomination to a fourth term and could have more trouble from at-
torney Sam Coopersmith (D) in a usually safe GOP district. In a
new toss-up district, Doug Wead, formerly Bush's liaison to the
Religious Right, has probably been a step behind state Sen. Karan
English (D) and was not helped when Goldwater endorsed English
late last week.

NEW MEXICO (5)<Clinton has been showing a bigger lead here than
in neighboring Arizona, with strong support in the Hispanic popu-
lation. Gore adds to Clinton's appeal in the high-tech and sci-
ence communities. Still, the state last went Democratic in 1964,
so no one in Little Rock is counting it safe, especially after a
visit Friday from Reagan to rally the faithful. Clinton returns
to New Mexico this weekend. No change is expected in the House
delegation, split between the parties.< OKLAHOMA (8)<Written off
early by the Clinton campaign, Oklahoma had to work its way
through the Perot boom before moving to the place most expected
it to be all along: in the Bush column. Sen. Don Nickles (R) was
confident enough of his own reelection to take on the uncomfort-
able job of chairing the Republican platform committee - and he
was right. Former state representative Steve Lewis (D) has not
mounted a serious challenge to Nickles's third-term bid. Rep.
James M. Inhofe (R) always has close races, and this year looks
to be no exception, with Tulsa County Commissioner John Selph (D)
providing the opposition. The district's Republicanism cushions
Inhofe's vulnerabilities.< TEXAS (32)<It seems implausible that
Clinton, with a direct media expenditure of only $50,000, could
remain competitive with a Bush campaign estimated to have spent
$3.5 million. But Perot, a longtime celebrity in Texas, has made
this a three-way race, drawing much of his support out of the
same Republican precincts in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex and
similar areas in Houston where Bush had gained his victory margin
four years ago. It is only as Perot's strength has leveled off
that the Bush camp has begun to see where the president might
offset Clinton's strength in core Democratic areas. Bush's
chances of repeating his 1988 victory here still depend on some-
thing he does not control: the split of the anti-Bush vote
between Perot and Clinton. With a large Hispanic vote expected
for an embattled statewide official, Railroad Commissioner Lena
Guerrero, it is not impossible for Clinton (the beneficiary of a
massive Democratic ground effort) to squeak through. But the bet
would have to be on Bush. Perot's strength may add to the trou-
bles of several Democratic incumbents who saw their districts re-
configured in a state that gains three House seats. Among the en-
dangered Democrats are Reps. Albert G.  Bustamante, Ronald D.
Coleman, Charles Wilson and Martin Frost. The first two may be
the most vulernable, but also will benefit most from a big
Hispanic vote for the Democratic ticket. Even with one more
black-majority and two more Hispanic districts ticketed for the
Democrats, the GOP could add to the eight seats it holds.<02:23
11-01C9999-----

Copyright 1992, The Washington Post.  This story is from the
Washington Post's Capitol Edition On-Line and is not to be ar-
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