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Subject: Haitian Exodus Could Pose Early Clinton Test<By Al Kamen=Washington Post Staff
Date: Thu, 12 Nov 92 04:42:06 EST
Message-ID: <16.1992Nov12.044207@AmeriCast.com>

Haitian Exodus Could Pose Early Clinton Test<By Al
Kamen=Washington Post Staff Writer=

Of the foreign policy issues facing President-elect Clinton -
such as civil war in Bosnia, economic woes in Russia, starvation
in Somalia, the military dictatorship in Iraq - the situation in
Haiti might pose the most direct and immediate political threat
to his administration.

Virtually every other foreign policy "crisis" for Clinton will be
inherited from President Bush. Some, like the turmoil in Cambodia
or Angola, have the potential for, at most, only minor domestic
political repercussions no matter how they are resolved.

But if, as many administration and refugee experts expect,
thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands, of boat people embark
for the United States from Haiti after Inauguration Day Jan. 20,
it will present Clinton with an immense and complex crisis that
will be of his own making.

Clinton, during the campaign, said he disagreed with the Bush
admnistration policy of turning back Haitian boat people without
giving them a hearing. He said he would afford them that hearing.

But Bush administration officials - who estimate it is possible
that 200,000 to 500,000 Haitians could attempt to leave the is-
land - say allowing such hearings to be held in Florida would be
a political disaster similar to the one that befell President
Jimmy Carter during the 1980 Mariel boatlift of 125,000 Cuban re-
fugees, when criminals and mental patients were included with
political refugees.

If Clinton wants to avoid having hundreds of thousands come
ashore in Florida he could reopen the tent city at the U.S. Naval
Base at Guantanamo, Cuba, or seek another Caribbean site to pro-
cess the refugees. But he would still have to contend with the
underlying problem of restoring Democracy to Haiti.

The Bush administration order was adopted in May after about
40,000 Haitian boat people were interdicted at sea while attempt-
ing to reach the United States. The outflow began shortly after
the September 1991 military coup that ousted Haitian President
Jean-Bertrand Aristide, but the Bush administration contended
most of the boat people were fleeing poverty, not political
repression.

At one point, more than 12,000 Haitian refugees swamped the Guan-
tanamo facility. A dozen Coast Guard and Navy vessels were
pressed into service to interdict the Haitians before they could
get near Florida. Many were picked up as their unseaworthy craft
were sinking.

Scores of immigration officials screened the boat people to
determine if they were refugees, eventually allowing about 25
percent, or 11,000 Haitians, to enter this country for further
screening. The rest were returned to Haiti.

Bush's May order effectively shut down the migration by sea and
the Guantanamo facility, which all told had cost about $60 mil-
lion. It Many Bush administration and refugee experts expect
thousands of boat people to embark for the United States on Inau-
guration Day.<

>

expanded refugee processing at the U.S. Embassy in Port-au-
Prince. Only about 300 people, all of them HIV-infected, are
still at the Guantanamo base, officials said.

The pressure in Haiti, the poorest country in the Western Hemi-
sphere, has gotten worse, refugee advocates say. Hundreds of boat
people have been intercepted in recent weeks even though the Bush
order means almost certain return to Haiti.

The U.S.-backed embargo of Haiti, imposed by the Organization of
American States after the military coup, has proved as leaky as
the refugees' boats. Its only effect, critics say, is to worsen
the already hellish conditions on the island without affecting
the military's grip on power or its persistent terrorism against
opponents.

Unlike most other foreign policy issues, Clinton has virtually no
maneuvering room on Haiti, administration oficials say. There
will be no time when he takes office for the traditional dodges -
task forces, study groups, delays pending a commission report -
to extend the old policy.  A federal appeals court in July struck
down the Bush policy as a violation of federal law. Clinton
hailed that ruling, saying it was "the right decision," and said
Bush was "wrong to deny Haitian refugees the right to make their
case for political asylum."

The Supreme Court, acting at the administration's request, stayed
the lower court ruling pending its own review, which is scheduled
for the February sitting, a month after Clinton becomes
president.  If Clinton fulfills his campaign promise and rescinds
the May order, that would likely moot the case, sources familiar
with the litigation say. If Clinton takes no action to rescind
the order, his solicitor general is obligated by law to either
defend it - an odd situation given Clinton's avowed disagreement
with it - or to petition the high court for permission to with-
draw the case.

That, administration officials say, is when the boats, if they
haven't left, will start coming. "Clinton can't want hundreds of
thousands of Haitians coming across in boats as the first result
of his presidency," one administration official said. But that is
what could happen unless other countries take in refugees or the
military regime is toppled.  If the refugee flow is not
overwhelming, the Clinton administration could conduct asylum in-
terviews on the Coast Guard cutters under U.N. supervision, with
those rejected quickly returned to Haiti. Such a move would still
subject him to criticism by opponents of the Bush policy who be-
lieve no one should be forced back to Haiti under the military
regime.

The Bush administration for months tried to get other countries
in the Caribbean region to take some of the refugees, but none
took more than a handful. Britain and France, who control terri-
tories in the region, also refused to offer space for camps.  The
lack of international support, according to one source, occurred
because then-Secretary of State James A. Baker III and Bush,
preoccupied with other matters, failed to get sufficiently in-
volved in the diplomatic efforts.  Bush, for example, would not
call President Joaquin Balaguer of the Dominican Republic, which
shares the island of Hispaniola with Haiti, to ask his assistance
in setting up a camp across the border unless Balaguer had com-
mitted himself to saying "yes" before the call. Balaguer
wouldn't, so no call was made.

Even if Clinton succeeds in finding non-U.S. facilities to pro-
vide refuge for the Haitians, the refugee exodus will raise anew
the need to address the underlying problem in Haiti.

OAS-sponsored negotiations between Aristide and the junta are at
an impasse, administration officials said, and some effort would
likely need to be made to have the United Nations impose an em-
bargo on the island nation. Some specialists have suggested it
might be necessary to blockade Haiti or even use force to oust
the regime.  Clinton is doubtless aware of the political dangers
of such a massive exodus.  One reason often cited for his failure
to win reelection in 1980 was the uprising of the Cuban detainees
who had been kept at a military facility in Fort Chaffee,
Ark.<02:16 11-12C9999-----

Copyright 1992, The Washington Post.  This story is from the
Washington Post's Capitol Edition On-Line and is not to be ar-
chived or redistributed.

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