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Subject: Yugoslav President Warns Croats to Halt Drive; Threat of Federal Army's Return
Date: Fri, 13 Nov 92 04:39:11 EST
Message-ID: <26.1992Nov13.043912@AmeriCast.com>

Yugoslav President Warns Croats to Halt Drive; Threat of Federal
Army's Return to Bosnia Comes as Latest Cease-Fire Unravels<By
Blaine Harden=Washington Post Foreign Service=

BELGRADE, Nov. 12 - As another Bosnian cease-fire unraveled to-
day, the president of Yugoslavia threatened that unless Croatia
halts an offensive in southeastern Bosnia-Hercegovina he will
dispatch the Yugoslav army to protect Serbs living there.

President Dobrica Cosic sent an urgent message to U.N. Secretary
General Boutros Boutros-Ghali, calling on him to "influence ade-
quately" Croatia to stop what Cosic said was a four-day offensive
by 16 brigades of Croatian Army regulars against Bosnian Serb
communities near the Adriatic Sea.

If Croatian forces do not "stop combat operations immediately,"
Cosic said he will be "forced to undertake decisive measures."

Belgrade media reported that Croat and Muslim forces continued
heavy attacks today in eastern Hercegovina - the southern portion
of the Bosnian republic - despite a cease-fire signed by all
three sides' top military commanders that began at midnight.
Croat and Muslim-controlled media, meanwhile, said there were
Serbian cease-fire violations in the central, northern and
western parts of Bosnia.

A U.N. spokesman in Sarajevo said at midday that "by local stan-
dards, the cease-fire is holding." But a few hours later, Reuter
reported two mortars landing near a city hospital. Since the war
in Bosnia started in April, scores of cease-fires have quickly
failed.  Western diplomats here said a full-scale incursion by
the federal army into Bosnia-Hercegovina would wreck U.N.-
brokered peace talks in Geneva, trigger much harsher economic
sanctions and could rekindle a war between the Yugoslav and Croat
armies that ended early this year.

The Serb-dominated Yugoslav army withdrew from Bosnia in May,
leaving behind a huge cache of arms that the Bosnian Serbs have
used to seize control of about 70 percent of the republic.  But
the Serbs' weakest link has been the southern part of the repub-
lic, a region that borders Croatia's Dalmatian coast.

Croatia, which lost one-third of its territory to Serb forces in
last year's war, has been busily beefing up its army in the past
11 months. Its regular army has taken control of most of Hercego-
vina, routing the Serbs in several major battles.

Here in Belgrade, radical Serb nationalists are demanding that
the federal Yugoslav government, which now comprises only Serbia
and tiny Montenegro, do something about the Croats' gains.

Until he fired off his threatening letter, Cosic, a 72-year-old
novelist and Serb nationalist theoretician, had been counseling
caution.

The white-haired writer has been viewed favorably in recent
months by Western governments as a leader inclined to wind down
ethnic wars in the former Yugoslavia.

He has criticized the authoritarian style of Serbia's strongman
president, Slobodan Milosevic, and is backing a moderate opposi-
tion coalition that is hoping to dump Milosevic in elections
scheduled for Dec. 20.  Cosic took part in negotiations last
month in Geneva that led to the final withdrawal of Yugoslav army
troops from a tiny slice of Croatia near the Adriatic.

Consequently, the harshness of the president's words in today's
letter left Western diplomats and military analysts slightly
alarmed and a bit puzzled.

"If he tries military intervention in eastern Hercegovina, it
will be a catastrophe," said Milos Vasic, military affairs writer
for the independent Belgrade magazine Vreme.

Vasic said Croatian forces appear to be making attacks that would
push Serb forces well away from the Croatian port city of Dubrov-
nik, which last year came under unprovoked bombardment from Serb,
Montenegrin and federal forces.

"The Croats obviously decided to protect the interior of Dubrov-
nik and the southern coastline. It is logical.  And the Serbs of
Hercegovina are screaming, but it is their problem, because they
have lost the war they started last year," Vasic said.

Diplomats here said Cosic's threat may be intended, at least, in
part, to shore up his authority in Belgrade with Serbian generals
of the federal army, who resent the erosion of their once gen-
erous salaries and the loss of perks such as villas on the Croa-
tian coast.<02:21 11-13C9999-----

Copyright 1992, The Washington Post.  This story is from the
Washington Post's Capitol Edition On-Line and is not to be ar-
chived or redistributed.

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