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Subject: Europe Ponders Politics Of Generational Change; Clinton's Win Shakes Seniority
Date: Sat, 14 Nov 92 11:48:46 EST
Message-ID: <21.1992Nov14.114846@AmeriCast.com>

Europe Ponders Politics Of Generational Change; Clinton's Win
Shakes Seniority Systems<By William Drozdiak=Washington Post
Foreign Service=

PARIS, Nov. 13 - As Bill Clinton prepares to enter the White
House, the arrival in power of a new American generation is
prompting fresh scrutiny in European countries about their en-
crusted political systems that put greater value on seniority
than on new ideas.

With the passing of the Cold War, the outbreak of ethnic conflict
in Eastern Europe and the risk of global recession, a new public
awareness is spreading across the continent that as the end of
the century draws near, an era of epic change will require coura-
geous decisions by leaders who are willing to buck comfort and
consensus.

The dominance of machine politicians in Europe, who become
president or prime minister after consolidating control over
their party through years of power-brokering, is now being viewed
in a more critical light with the sudden elevation of the young
Arkansas governor.

"I think Clinton's election could have important consequences in
Europe because people yearn for fresh faces," said Claude Imbert,
chief editor of the French newsweekly Le Point. "The disaffection
with the political establishment in France and elsewhere is due
to the feeling that power corrupts, and that we need new answers
to new problems."

Europeans woke up late to the prospect of a Clinton victory be-
cause they believed that George Bush, in spite of the poor U.S.
economy, would defeat a younger challenger simply on the basis of
his background in statesmanship and four years of hands-on ex-
perience as leader of the world's sole superpower.

"The generational change that Clinton represents goes beyond the
biological dimension," said Serge July, editor of the French dai-
ly Liberation. He believes Clinton's biggest impact on European
politics will be to accelerate the shedding of ideologies, to
blur distinctions between left and right, as befits a man "who
can so easily blend his support for feminism with support for the
death penalty."

As they digest the implications of Clinton's triumph, younger
politicians in Europe are now jockeying for power by emphasizing
their youth as an asset rather than a detriment. But many of them
seem frustrated by political customs that keep the keys to the
system in the hands of party elders.

In France, politics has been shaped for more than two decades by
President Francois Mitterrand, 76, and his two conservative
rivals, Jacques Chirac and Valery Giscard d'Estaing, who are both
in their sixties.  Even after Mitterrand leaves office, his like-
ly successor to lead France into the 21st century will be Chirac,
Giscard or another sexagenarian Socialist, Michel Rocard or
Jacques Delors.

"The presidential system in France is really a resurrection of
the monarchy with all its powers," said Denis Lacorne, a politi-
cal scientist at the University of Paris. "But all of the insti-
tutions place such a premium on seniority that what you end up
with is a gerontocracy."

But with voters in France showing disdain for the entire politi-
cal class, the likely presidential contenders are vying to pro-
ject a more youthful, dynamic image. Giscard, who was elected
president at 48 but defeated in a bid for a second seven-year
term, is trying to soften his glacial bearing by wearing cardi-
gans and playing the accordion in public.  Chirac has courted the
youth vote by appearing at Madonna concerts and hobnobbing with
artists.

Mitterrand, while recuperating from prostate surgery, has ruled
out any early retirement. Yet he, too, recognizes that voters are
looking forward to a change of generation in Europe's leadership.
"It's true that the arrival of a new generation at the head of
the United States leaves one thinking that we must move, with the
end of this century and the start of another, toward other tem-
peraments, other characters, other ways of seeing things. And
maybe that's not so bad," he mused in a television interview this
week.

In Germany, Chancellor Helmut Kohl's 10 years as government
leader have featured occasional challenges within his ruling
Christian Democratic party during passing phases of unpopularity.
But his strong grip over the party's local fiefs and his ruthless
treatment of rivals has kept any serious contender from getting
close to toppling him. With discontent spreading throughout the
country two years after unification, the only heirs apparent are
two ministerial proteges in their fifties who have toiled under
him: Wolfgang Schauble and Volker Ruehe.

"Kohl has a killer instinct that is reminiscent of old monarchs
who beheaded anybody who became too popular," said a German offi-
cial. "But he will not face any youthful challenge because German
voters always revere experience and distrust youth." Moreover,
German politicians rarely achieve any stature or position of in-
fluence until their forties because their society places such an
emphasis on maturity. Those Germans who earn postgraduate de-
grees, considered an important asset for a politician, rarely
leave their universities before age 30.

In Italy, the extraordinary control wielded until now by the main
governing parties, the Socialists and the Christian Democrats,
also demands the slow accumulation of seniority before a politi-
cian can achieve a measure of power.  "The system works that way
because after the war we wanted to prevent another strongman like
(dictator Benito) Mussolini from getting too popular," said Fran-
co Ferrarotti, an Italian sociologist. "But now there is such
disgust with corruption in the establishment that we may leave
ourselves vulnerable again to a younger demagogue."

At 49, British Prime Minister John Major is the youngest leader
of a major European country. But he owes his place less to his
youth than to his ascent in the party hierarchy as a protege of
his predecessor, Margaret Thatcher.

Spain's Prime Minister Felipe Gonzalez, who at 50 has been in
power for a decade, ranks as a case apart because, along with
King Juan Carlos, he has become the focal point of Spain's demo-
cratic emergence. Despite occasional grumbling about the fatigue
of exercising power for so long, Gonzalez is now expected to run
again next year.

"He would love to be able to sit back and rest on his laurels," a
close friend said, "but a politician, whether he is young or old,
cannot resist the trappings and influence of power."<11:12 11-
14C9999-----

Copyright 1992, The Washington Post.  This story is from the
Washington Post's Capitol Edition On-Line and is not to be ar-
chived or redistributed.

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