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Subject: California Predicted to Face A Seventh Year of Drought; Dry Spell Would Be
Date: Wed, 18 Nov 92 04:53:56 EST
Message-ID: <50.1992Nov18.045356@AmeriCast.com>

California Predicted to Face A Seventh Year of Drought; Dry Spell
Would Be Worst in at Least Four Centuries<By Leef Smith=Special
to The Washington Post= LOS ANGELES, Nov. 17 - California may be
saddled with a seventh consecutive year of drought for the first
time in at least four centuries, state water experts predicted.

State hydrologists used written records dating to the turn of the
century and tree ring data since 1560 to formulate their predic-
tion that this winter will most likely be classified as dry, like
the last six winters preceding it.

"Coming from a long historical perspective, this is a fairly
unusual drought," said Maurice Roos, chief hydrologist for the
Department of Water Resources.  Northern California in particu-
lar, he said, could suffer the worst seven years of drought on
record.

Roos said this winter's storms are likely to produce about 14
million acre-feet of runoff in the Sacramento River Basin, com-
pared with a record of 38 million in 1983 and a record low of 5
million in 1977. This year's water estimate is substantially
higher than the 9 million acre-feet produced last year but still
considered inadequate to combat the state's weakening water
reserves, which are at a near-record low. An acre-foot is 325,853
gallons, the amount of water it takes to cover one acre of land
to a depth of one foot.

For Californians, the effect of another dry winter will mean even
less water available in state's already depleted 155 reservoirs
and the possibility of resumed mandatory water conservation pro-
grams.

The situation will be complicated by pumping restrictions to pro-
tect endangered species and increased demand from a steadily
growing population in Southern Californmia, which increased by
300,000 in the last year, according to Jay Malinowski, assistant
chief of operations for the Metropolitan Water District (MWD), a
wholesaler that supplies water to local water systems throughout
Southern California. "We're trying to do more with less."

Malinowski said the MWD may purchase a small percentage of water
allocated for agricultural use from farmers and other districts
around the state and distribute it to urban users.

He said it is possible to exaggerate the situation. "People hear
the word 'drought' and they picture the Sahara desert," Mali-
nowski said. "That's wrong. A drought means there's not enough
rainfall to meet our demands. In California we expect a certain
amount of rainfall and we just haven't gotten it."

"Some people predict that this will be the demise of agriculture
in California," Malinowski said. "That's just not the case."

 Most urban areas in California already rely on water imported
from the Sierra Nevada or Colorado watershed, which is below nor-
mal but has adequate water. Agriculture, Malinowski said, "will
always enjoy the king-sized portion of California's developed wa-
ter," about 80 to 85 percent.

"People in Southern California are doing a heck of a job conserv-
ing water in the absence of any substantial advertising," Mali-
nowski said, with people using 15 to 22 percent less than they
did before the onset of the drought.

Nevertheless, Roos said he sees only hard choices for California
with rainfall desperately needed and water storage hard to come
by.  "Each year," he said, "is a new ball game."<02:38 11-
18C9999-----

Copyright 1992, The Washington Post.  This story is from the
Washington Post's Capitol Edition On-Line and is not to be ar-
chived or redistributed.

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