Path: bloom-picayune.mit.edu!snorkelwacker.mit.edu!americast.com!americast.com!americast-post Newsgroups: americast.wpost From: americast-post@AmeriCast.Com Organization: American Cybercasting Approved: americast-post@AmeriCast.com Subject: Milosevic's Next TargetBy Lally Weymouth Date: Mon, 23 Nov 92 09:54:16 EST Message-ID: <48.1992Nov23.095416@AmeriCast.com> Milosevic's Next TargetBy Lally Weymouth Although the American people have expressed a desire for their national leaders to concentrate primarily on domestic affairs, President Bush will not likely be granted this luxury - not even during his last two months in office. While it's too late to halt the tragedy in Bosnia - "ethnic cleansing" has already taken a toll on Bosnian Muslims in the tens of thousands - Bush adminis- tration officials are now focused on stopping Serbian strongman Slobodan Milosevic's genocidal campaign from spreading to Kosovo, a province in southern Serbia that borders Albania and appears to be Milosevic's next target. Under Tito, Yugoslavia gave Kosovo - which is approximately 90 percent Albanian Muslim - a great degree of autonomy, which last- ed until Milosevic revoked it. Since that time, the Albanians have endured various repressive Serb measures against them.< In recent weeks, the Serbian army has increased its presence, con- ducted military maneuvers and provided small arms to Serbs in the province. All in all, the stage seems to be set for another Serbian-inspired bloodbath. If Milosevic attacks Kosovo, U.S. officials predict that some of the poorly armed Albanian inhabitants will resist while others will become refugees, fleeing into Macedonia, Greece, and Al- bania. The danger arises that the conflict would then spark a wider war, spreading to Macedonia, Albania itself, Bulgaria, Greece and even Turkey. Greece and Turkey are, of course, key U.S. allies. Administration officials are now debating how best to avert an attack on Kosovo. After far-reaching discussions with U.S. allies and with the U.N., several high-ranking officials maintain that a consensus has already been achieved: Washington needs to make what one official characterizes as a "substantial effort" to convince Milosevic that there is U.S. resolve on the question of Kosovo, notwithstanding the transition from Bush to Clinton. Washington's failure to act during the slaughter in Bosnia has, of course, complicated this task by undermining Amer- ican credibility. If a warning fails to control Milosevic, then as one official put it, "we'll have to do something tough - a really serious action is in order." At present, one favored option under consideration is the deploy- ment of an international peace-keeping force to Kosovo under U.N. or NATO auspices. Another is strengthening the international mon- itors already on the ground in Kosovo. But it is unclear whether such actions would be sufficient to get Milosevic to abandon his designs on Kosovo - unless they were backed up by the threat of the use of force. Meanwhile, some in Washington argue that such a deployment might well incite an immediate Albanian uprising in Kosovo directed against the repressive Serb minority there. In the administration's twilight weeks, policy planners hope to execute a delicate maneuver - deterring Milosevic without creating a demand by Albanians in Kosovo for independence. An alternative option favored by some military planners is arming the victims of Milosevic - the Albanian Kosovars, the Bosnian Muslims and even the Croatians - to enable them to defend them- selves - a strategy parallel to that which Sen. Joseph Biden ad- vocated recently regarding Bosnia. U.S. officials also are contemplating having an international or NATO force bomb limited military targets inside Serbia to reduce the military edge Milosevic now enjoys. A key impending date is Dec. 20, when Milosevic faces an election in Serbia. He might well attack Kosovo before the election if political developments appear to bode ill. Alternatively, of course, should he win easi- ly, he might then be emboldened to launch a full-scale post- election attack on Kosovo. This crisis highlights a failure of leadership on the part of the European Community. Washington has deferred to its European allies with respect to the Balkans. The net result has been utter passivity. Macedonian President Kiro Gligorov, who recently visited the Un- ited States, freely expresses his fear that war in Kosovo would spread to his struggling country. Gligorov even asked Secretary General Boutros Boutros-Ghali to deploy U.N. peace-keeping troops along the Kosovo-Macedonia frontier. Thousands of refugees are fleeing into Macedonia from Bosnia to escape the carnage. Meanwhile, because of Greek pressure, both the E.C. and the United States refuse to give Macedonia interna- tional diplomatic recognition. Thus the small country lacks ac- cess to international funds and investment. If Milosevic spreads his campaign to Macedonia, as President Gli- gorov fears, the Serbian crusade will likely trigger a wider Bal- kan war. "None of the neighbors will remain dispassionate," ac- cording to the Macedonian leader. In spite of the newly beefed up international naval blockade of Serbia, few believe sanctions will be any more effective against Milosevic than they were against Saddam Hussein. To work, they must be accompanied by a credible threat to use force. Let's hope President Bush and President-elect Clinton find it possible to approach this crisis in a truly bipartisan fashion.<09:30 11-23 Copyright 1992, The Washington Post. This story is from the Washington Post's Capitol Edition On-Line and is not to be ar- chived or redistributed. For more information, send-email to American Cybercasting Cor- poration (usa@AmeriCast.COM)