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Subject: Post-Debate Perot Surge Stalls in Poll; Clinton Keeps Lead Over President as
Date: Thu, 29 Oct 92 04:29:59 EST
Message-ID: <19.1992Oct29.042959@AmeriCast.com>

Post-Debate Perot Surge Stalls in Poll; Clinton Keeps Lead Over
President as They Trade Charges<By Dan Balz and Richard
Morin<Washington Post Staff Writers=

The surge of support for Ross Perot that began immediately after
the presidential debates appears to have stopped, and Bill Clin-
ton continues to lead President Bush in the presidential race,
according to a new Washington Post Poll.

Clinton leads Bush by 44 percent to 34 percent among likely
voters, with Perot at 19 percent, little changed from late last
week.

While Perot's accusations of Republican dirty tricks, which he
later acknowledged he could not substantiate, and his testy news
conference with reporters on Monday have not reduced his overall
support, The Post poll and other recent polls suggest he may have
limited his ability to attract more voters in the campaign's fi-
nal week.

Clinton and Bush continued to trade charges yesterday. Clinton,
campaigning in Texas and Mississippi, accused Bush of abusing his
powers and waging "the most reckless campaign with the truth" in
modern presidential history. Bush spent his day in Ohio, attack-
ing Clinton for waffling on the issues. The president also as-
serted that Clinton's supporters "feel the race slipping away."
(Related stories, Pages A10, A11)<

Most news media polls put Clinton's lead at 6 to 11 points, while
advisers to Bush and Clinton say their private polls put
Clinton's margin at about 7 percentage points. One poll released
yesterday showed Bush within 2 points, though few in either the
Bush or Clinton campaign put much credence in the result.

Bush's campaign manager Robert M. Teeter said he believed the
president was moving up and could overtake Clinton. Clinton's
advisers said their state-by-state polls, as well as public
polls, suggest the Democratic nominee still enjoys a strong ad-
vantage in the electoral college map, but some Bush advisers say
the president is making gains there as well.

The differences in current national polls reflect the continuing
volatility of the electorate as well as the increased difficulty
pollsters are having this year determining who will turn out to
vote on Tuesday.

Increases in voter registration and surveys of voters suggest
there is a historically high level of interest in the campaign,
possibly foreshadowing a sizable increase in turnout next week
when compared with recent presidential elections. That means that
polls using traditional definitions of "likely voters" - such as
whether someone voted in the last election - may produce mislead-
ing results.<

Perot used the three presidential debates to refurbish his image
with the voters and his support jumped dramatically once they
ended, roughly doubling in The Post poll and others. But that
surge appears to have stopped abruptly, following Perot's perfor-
mance over the weekend.

Ed Goeas, a Republican pollster who is conducting a nightly
tracking poll of the presidential race, said that while Perot's
support has not declined, more people have an unfavorable opinion
of him now than they did a week ago. "He may have stopped any po-
tential to pass that 20 percent mark," Goeas said.

George Stephanopoulos, Clinton's communications director, said,
"I think Perot may have peaked."

The Democratic and Republican campaigns have anticipated that
Perot could begin to fall in the polls because of the negative
reaction and news media coverage of his accusations. But The Post
survey suggests Perot may not drop much in the polls as Election
Day approaches.

Nearly nine of 10 Perot voters (88 percent) say they strongly
support him, compared with about eight of 10 (79 percent) of
Clinton's voters and nearly three out of four (74 percent) of all
Bush supporters.

Support for Clinton and Bush continues to firm up.  According to
the poll, eight of 10 Bush and Clinton voters say there is little
chance they will change their minds and vote for someone else be-
fore Election Day.

Perot has been working to convince the public that a vote for him
is not a wasted vote. Although his support has stopped growing,
an additional 28 percent of those surveyed said they would vote
for him if they believed he could win.

Perot's surge has added an element of uncertainty to a race in
which Clinton had maintained a solid lead for weeks.

Teeter said yesterday the rest of the race may depend more on
Bush's and Clinton's performances than on what Perot does. "The
key now is you've got to see continued movement," Teeter told re-
porters at a luncheon. "That may or may not be dependent on
Perot."

Teeter said he believes the debates had helped focus voters on
their choice for president, rather than on the weak economy that
has pushed Bush's popularity down all year. He said that in the
final five days of campaigning, the president would continue to
hit hard on that theme, with Bush's advertising a combination of
a two-minute appeal to voters to consider the importance of sta-
bility and experience in the Oval Office along with a negative
spot attacking Clinton's record as governor.

Clinton's campaign continued to debate how to tailor the
Democrat's message for the final stretch, but Stan Greenberg,
Clinton's pollster, said, "This election is about the economy and
change." Clinton advisers said they want to focus voters' atten-
tion on Bush's economic record and the question of whether they
want another four years of Bush's policies.

Clinton strategists said the Democratic nominee continues to hold
double-digit leads in states that together give him nearly the
270 electoral votes he needs to win. Bush strategists argue that
the president is making up ground, particularly in southern and
Rocky Mountain states, and that a number of the major
battleground states, from New Jersey to Ohio to Wisconsin, have
begun to tighten.

But Teeter acknowledged that Clinton has many more options for
reaching 270 than does Bush.

The Post survey suggests that Clinton may be poised to reverse
the pattern of recent presidential elections in which large
numbers of Democrats defected to the Republican nominee. At the
same time, Bush is having unexpected difficulty keeping Republi-
can voters in the GOP fold.

According to the poll, eight of 10 Democrats say they are voting
for Clinton this year, while two out of three self-described
Republicans are voting for Bush.

Clinton also holds a 10-point lead among independent voters, and
does particularly well with older voters, women and those with
household incomes below $20,000 a year. The Post poll found Clin-
ton leading in every region of the country. In the western
states, Clinton had a 46 percent to 26 percent lead over Bush,
who barely finished ahead of Perot at 24 percent of the vote.<

Staff writer Ann Devroy contributed to this report.<02:14 10-
29C9999-----

Copyright 1992, The Washington Post.  This story is from the
Washington Post's Capitol Edition On-Line and is not to be ar-
chived or redistributed.

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