Path: bloom-picayune.mit.edu!snorkelwacker.mit.edu!americast.com!americast.com!americast-post
Newsgroups: americast.wpost
From: americast-post@AmeriCast.Com
Organization: American Cybercasting
Approved: americast-post@AmeriCast.com
Subject: Russian Politics Imperiling Arms Cuts; Disarmament Process Complicated by
Date: Sat, 31 Oct 92 08:47:18 EST
Message-ID: <7.1992Oct31.084718@AmeriCast.com>

Russian Politics Imperiling Arms Cuts; Disarmament Process Com-
plicated by Nationalists' Influence<By Michael Dobbs and Fred
Hiatt=Washington Post Foreign Service=

MOSCOW, Oct. 30 - The growing influence of hard-line nationalists
in the Russian parliament and uncertainty about neighboring
Ukraine's nuclear intentions have pushed Russian proponents of
arms reduction agreements with the United States onto the defen-
sive, and raised questions about the ratification of nuclear cuts
already negotiated.

Senior Kremlin officials insist that they remain committed to
arms control deals negotiated with Washington, including a frame-
work agreement that will slash strategic nuclear weapons by two-
thirds over the next decade. But they acknowledge that a series
of political setbacks for President Boris Yeltsin has complicated
the ratification process and raised doubts about future arms
talks.

"It is a hard time for disarmers in Russia, that's for sure,"
Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Berdennikov, the chief Russian
negotiator in arms reduction talks with the United States, said
in an interview today. "Both (Moscow and Washington) need to take
the political environment into account."

Berdennikov also expressed grave concern about recent indications
that Ukraine may be reconsidering its pledge to give up all nu-
clear weapons. He said such hesitation will encourage the proli-
feration of nuclear arms to other countries and also make it more
difficult to persuade conservatives here to approve arms control
pacts with the United States.

U.S. officials have privately expressed concern over the delay in
hammering out the final details of a landmark arms reduction
agreement announced by Yeltsin and President Bush at their meet-
ing in Washington last June. The agreement, which is sometimes
known as START II, requires Russia to eliminate its 308 SS-18
missiles, the most powerful weapon in its arsenal, in addition to
banning all other land-based missiles with multiple warheads.

Initially, Bush administration officials told reporters that they
expected to have work on the treaty completed by September, well
before the U.S. elections. The failure to meet this target has
enabled the Democrats to raise questions about the president's
ability to nail down arms control agreements with the Kremlin.

Berdennikov said he could not predict the outcome of the conser-
vative parliament's debate on the ratification of last year's
START I treaty, which is scheduled for Wednesday.  But he noted
that consideration of the START II draft treaty would only give
conservatives a second target, endangering the current ratifica-
tion process.  In interviews here, both Berdennikov and Foreign
Minister Andrei Kozyrev denied there has been any deliberate
foot-dragging on the Russian side. They said the remaining obsta-
cles to turn the framework agreement into a formal treaty are
"technical" and "economic" and are likely to be overcome during
the coming weeks.

"I do not see anyone here who questions the political agreement,
the essence," said Kozyrev, adding that there was a "temptation"
for technical experts on both sides to interpret the deal in a
way most favorable to them. "This is what usually happens. This
is normal."

But officials here also acknowledged that the political climate
has changed considerably, darkening the prospects for rapid pro-
gress in arms control. In foreign policy as in economics, Yeltsin
and his government are under attack from nationalists and former
Communists. Kozyrev, in particular, has been targeted for al-
legedly giving away too much in the field of disarmament and
slavishly following the U.S. line in international affairs.

"A large portion of public opinion believes that we've done too
much disarming already, especially with the troop withdrawals
from Eastern Europe," Berdennikov said.  "So the situation is
really difficult. It's not simple."

The deputy minister emphasized that he believes the arms talks
remain "pretty much on track." While declining to comment on
suggestions that U.S. officials are expecting a Russian draft
treaty sometime next week, Berdennikov said he expects Kozyrev
and U.S. acting Secretary of State Lawrence S. Eagleburger to
meet soon to advance the negotiations. "I don't know who expected
a swifter pace," he said.  But while denying that they have any
intention of backing out of the agreement reached in Washington,
Russian officials also suggest that they could have tactical rea-
sons for moving slowly on fleshing out the details of the pact.
Berdennikov indicated that it might be easier politically for the
government to seek parliamentary ratification of START I before
finalizing START II.  "From our point of view, it's more logical
to have it (START I) ratified first," he said.

Officials here also suggested that they are concerned about the
costs of disarmament and may be seeking additional U.S. financial
aid for the dismantling process or modifications in the agreement
to make implementation less costly.

"Some of our concerns are now rooted not in military but in
economic considerations," Kozyrev said. "That's where more think-
ing should be given, because if the disarmament process becomes
unnecessarily costly for us, this will be used against disarma-
ment itself . .

And an issue that has bedeviled arms controllers since the break-
up of the Soviet Union last year - the presence of nuclear
weapons in what are now four separate nations - appears as thorny
as ever. In a debate on military doctrine in the Ukrainian parli-
ament this week, some deputies made it clear they believe their
nation should not quickly give up its nuclear potential.

The possibility that Ukraine or, more remotely, Kazakhstan or Be-
larus might reconsider their non-nuclear pledges is cited in turn
by conservatives here as an argument against rapid disarming.
Sergei Stankevich, an adviser to Yeltsin, said he supports the
basic arms reduction agreement, but he urged caution nonetheless.

"The nuclear equation is more complicated than before," he said.
"If (the nationalist party) Rukh comes to power in Ukraine, I do
not know what to expect. If some slippery nationalist forces come
to power in Kazakhstan, I do not know what to expect. We should
simply be more careful."<02:09 10-31C9999-----

Copyright 1992, The Washington Post.  This story is from the
Washington Post's Capitol Edition On-Line and is not to be ar-
chived or redistributed.

For more information, send-email to American Cybercasting Cor-
poration (usa@AmeriCast.COM)