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Subject: CONNECTICUT (8 electoral votes)<
Date: Sun, 1 Nov 92 09:14:31 EST
Message-ID: <39.1992Nov1.091431@AmeriCast.com>

CONNECTICUT (8 electoral votes)<

The recession that has gripped New England has made voters from
here on north seem ready to abandon Bush - who was born in Mas-
sachusetts, grew up in Connecticut and vacations in Maine - for
two Democrats from down South. Connecticut is one of the closer
states, but still leans to Clinton. Sen. Christopher J. Dodd (D)
would have been favored anyway for a third term over Brook John-
son (R), textile manufacturer and self-financed challenger. The
toughest House race finds freshman Rep. Gary A.  Franks, the only
black Republican in Congress, hoping that the sore loser in the
Democratic primary, state Rep. Lynn H. Taborsak, now running as
an independent, siphons enough votes from James Lawlor (D), a
probate judge, to let Franks survive. Franks is very shaky.<

MAINE (4)<The summer vacations at Kennebunkport have made Maine a
second home for Bush, but his neighbors have not spread the wel-
come mat in the current hard times. Clinton has led consistently
in polls, and some Maine politicians see a chance that Perot may
finish ahead of Bush, and maybe even threaten Clinton. Maine
elected an independent as governor in 1974, so it is not a radi-
cal idea here. Both House seats feature rematches of 1990 races.
But Rep. Olympia J. Snowe (R) is struggling harder this time
against former state representative Patrick K.  McGowan (D) and
the weak economy, although McGowan's chances are diminished by
the presence of a Green Party candidate. Rep. Thomas H. Andrews
(D) is having an easier time of it against Linda Bean (R), the
granddaughter of L.L. Bean.< MASSACHUSETTS (12)<Call it Dukakis's
revenge. Polls show Clinton with a 2 to 1 lead and Perot crowding
Bush for second place. Despite Clinton, Republicans expect to
take more House seats from the Democrats, who already lost one to
reapportionment. Their prime target is Rep. Nicholas Mavroules
(D), under indictment for racketeering, bribery and tax evasion.
Former state representative Peter Torkildsen (R) is the likely
winner there. Next on the endangered list - thanks to 140 over-
drafts at the House Bank - is Rep. Joseph D. Early (D), who got
barely over a third of the vote in a five-way primary and now
faces state Rep. Peter Blute (R).<

NEW HAMPSHIRE (4)<The warning signs were up last winter, when
Bush had to struggle for an unimpressive victory in the Republi-
can primary, and they are flying still. Clinton, who lost the
Democratic primary to Paul E. Tsongas, carried a double-digit
lead over Bush into the weekend. Bush's campaign chairman, Gov.
Judd Gregg (R), scion of one of the state's leading families,
finds himself struggling against businessman John Rauh (D), who
moved here only in 1986, for the seat of retiring Sen. Warren B.
Rudman (R). Polls show Rauh narrowly ahead, and Gregg will have
to rally to defend the seat and the family honor. of the undecid-
ed inclined to vote for Clinton. The governor's race between
former attorney general Steve Merrill (R) and state Rep. Deborah
"Arnie" Arnesen (D), an advocate of a broad-based tax, has been
very close, but Merrill is given an edge. It was astonishing
enough in 1990 when the 2nd District made Dick Swett its first
Democratic House member since 1912. Swett is cruising to reelec-
tion and there is a chance he may be joined by another Democrat.
Freshman Rep.  William H. Zeliff Jr. (R) could lose to former
state Senate minority leader Bob Preston (D), who has gained the
backing of the Manchester Union Leader for his antiabortion
stand.

NEW JERSEY (15)<Historically, the Garden State has been more
Republican than its neighbors and the GOP won a big victory in
last year's anti-tax legislative elections. But Bush has strug-
gled here and yesterday's Eagleton Institute - Newark Star Ledger
poll showed him 8 points down among probable voters, despite some
slippage from Perot to Bush during the polling period. This is
virtually a must-win state for Bush, so he is coming back, but so
is Clinton, for a big rally tonight at the Meadowlands Arena.
Clinton is trying to blunt the shift of Republicans back to Bush
with radio ads on his abortion-rights stand. With the House dele-
gation shrinking by one and Republicans apparently on the upswing
at the state level, Democrats could be down two or three seats
from their current eight. Republicans have gone into the ranks of
their new legislative majority and found candidates (who do not
have to give up their seats in Trenton) against four incumbents
and in one open-seat race, with their best chance probably in the
open seat.< NEW YORK (33)<Clinton survived a trial by fire in the
New York media during last April's primary, and he won the city
over during his July stroll from Macy's to Madison Square Garden
to accept his party's nomination. He has been enjoying margins of
almost 20 points in the polls. And that may be important in the
battle between two-term incumbent Sen. Alfonse M. D'Amato (R) and
state Attorney General Robert Abrams (D). D'Amato has been a
Democratic target ever since a Senate Ethics Committee probe, but
he seized the initiative in the race from the moment Abrams em-
erged from a tight September primary. Democrats admit D'Amato has
out-campaigned Abrams, but they think that this is a Democratic
year in the Empire State. Abrams leads in three published polls,
and registration gains in New York City may give him as much help
as Clinton coattails. Loser of three House seats, New York has
only 15 of 21 Democratic incumbents and nine of 13 GOP incumbents
on the ballot. Despite Clinton's strength, Republicans can count
as many turnover possibilities as the Democrats. The action
ranges from Long Island, where Republicans have a shot against
Rep. Thomas J. Downey (D) but worry about two of their open
seats, all the way to Buffalo, where Republican challengers, one
of them the namesake son of the late William E. Miller, Barry
Goldwater's 1964 running mate, are fighting the Clinton tide and
favored Democrats.<

RHODE ISLAND (4)<This is another state where Bush's challenge is
to beat out Perot because he has no chance of catching Clinton.
Gov. Bruce G. Sundlun (D) had his real test in the Democratic
primary and now faces token opposition from auto dealer Elizabeth
Ann Leonard (R). Rep. Ronald K. Machtley (R) will have to over-
come a huge Clinton tide but is favored over state Sen. David R.
Carlin Jr. (D).< VERMONT (3)<With a boost from Clinton, two other
Democrats also are out front in a state that tends to reelect in-
cumbents. Sen. Patrick J. Leahy (D), running for a fourth term,
has gotten the full "pay raise and perks" treatment from his op-
ponent, Secretary of State James H. Douglas (R), but seems to
have enough to win by a reduced margin. Gov. Howard Dean (D) has
had an easier, more civil debate with state Sen. John McClaughry
(R). Freshman independent Rep. Bernard Sanders, an avowed Social-
ist, has escaped a strong challenge for reelection.<02:38 11-
01C9999-----

Copyright 1992, The Washington Post.  This story is from the
Washington Post's Capitol Edition On-Line and is not to be ar-
chived or redistributed.

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