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Date: Mon, 2 Nov 92 04:35:15 EST
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DELAWARE<

Democratic presidential nominee Bill Clinton has a shaky lead in
a state that historically backs the winner, so keep an eye on it
early on Tuesday night for possible trend indicators. President
Bush was back in the state several times last month to ask for
support. A convenient job-swap is in prospect for two-term Gov.
Michael N. Castle (R) and five-term at-Large Rep.  Thomas R.
Carper (D). Carper is strongly favored over real estate executive
B.  Gary Scott (R) for the governorship, and Castle has a clear
lead over former lieutenant governor S.B. Woo (D) for the lone
House seat.<

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA<

In the nation's capital, where registered Democrats outnumber
Republicans 10 to 1, Clinton is an almost automatic winner. Most
of the guesswork of local races was removed during the Democratic
primary when the anti-incumbent wave washed two powerful politi-
cians out of office. Instead, most of the attention in the Dis-
trict is focused on ballot initiatives to limit campaign contri-
butions in local races and to reinstitute the death penalty. Both
are opposed by virtually all of the city's elected officials but
are given a good chance. Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D) is ex-
pected to prevail over three lesser-known opponents. And former
mayor Marion Barry will claim victory in his City Council
comeback.<MARYLAND<

Polls in the Free State have shown Clinton holding a double-digit
lead, and few Republicans expect it to be shaken by the late de-
fection of Gov. William Donald Schaefer (D) to President Bush's
side. First-term Sen. Barbara A. Mikulski (D) holds comfortable
poll margins over her Republican opponent, former State Depart-
ment official Alan L.  Keyes, a black conservative activist who
has complained of lack of support from the national GOP. During
the March primary, voters fired their first shot against incum-
bents by defeating seven-term Rep. Beverly B. Byron (D), but
Democrats are favored to hold the seat with state Rep. Thomas H.
Hattery (D) over Roscoe G. Bartlett (R). Another incumbent on the
griddle is Rep. Steny H.  Hoyer, the fourth-ranking Democrat in
the House leadership, but he is favored to survive the assault
from Lawrence J. Hogan Jr. (R). In the redistricting-forced bat-
tle between Reps. Tom McMillen (D) and Wayne T.  Gilchrist (R),
some polls give a narrow edge to Gilchrist, with McMillen lagging
on the Eastern Shore. State Sen. Albert R. Wynn (D) is almost
certain to be the winner in the new black-majority district cen-
tered in Prince George's County.<NORTH CAROLINA<

The presidential race is so close here that both parties are go-
ing all-out. Former president Ronald Reagan went in yesterday for
Bush, and the Democrats counter with Clinton today and running
mate Albert Gore Jr. (Tenn.), who may be even more popular, Mon-
day. The final week trend was toward Bush, but no one can count
on it yet. Former governor James B. Hunt (D), who lost a classic
Senate battle to Jesse Helms (R) eight years ago, has seemed
poised to reclaim his old job from retiring Gov. James G. Martin
(R). But last week Hunt's opponent, Lt. Gov. Jim Gardner (R),
charged that a Hunt supporter had been intercepting and tran-
scribing Gardner's mobile phone calls. The transcripts Gardner
released were hardly flattering to himself, and most observers
think the incident is not likely to derail Hunt.  Sen. Terry San-
ford (D) was barely ahead in his race for a second term when he
stopped campaigning for two weeks this month to have a heart
valve replacement operation. Sanford's opponent, ex-Democrat and
ex-Sanford ally Lauch Faircloth (R), has the backing of Helms's
organization, the Congressional Club, and has hammered Sanford on
welfare and spending issues in an aggressive ad campaign.
<PENNSYLVANIA<

Clinton's economic message has resonated here since his April
primary win and while the margin in the polls has been declining,
it is not likely that Bush, who won only 51 percent here in 1988,
will defeat Clinton.  The race that has riveted attention is that
of Sen. Arlen Specter (R) for a third term against Lynn Yeakel
(D). A fund-raiser for women's causes, Yeakel won an upset pri-
mary victory by highlighting her anger at Specter's role in the
Clarence Thomas-Anita F. Hill hearings. She has had a tough time
adjusting to the demands of a campaign against one of the
country's most adept and hardest-working politicians, but Yeakel
has never been out of the race. A late Specter ad highlighting
some of her stumbles has had measurable impact and raised GOP
hopes that Specter will hold on for a narrow victory. This week-
end on television, Yeakel returned to the Anita Hill theme that
launched her candidacy. Clinton's expected victory here bolsters
Democratic hopes, but coattails have rarely been important in
Pennsylvania Senate races. The House delegation drops two seats,
and there are abundant opportunities for shaking up the cast. No
fewer than six incumbents - three in each party - have tough bat-
tles, and each party can see taking an open seat from the other.<
VIRGINIA<The Clinton-Gore ticket provides Democrats their best
chance to break a string of six consecutive Republican plurali-
ties in presidential voting stretching back to 1968. But the la-
test polls indicate Bush may retain support from enough Reagan
Democrats to keep the state in the GOP column.

Democrats, who now hold a 6 to 4 edge in the House delegation,
could increase that advantage to 7 to 4, 8 to 3, or even 9 to 2.
The margin hinges on a close contest for an open seat near
Roanoke; a serious challenge from former TV reporter Andrew H.
Fox to Rep. Herbert H. Bateman (R) in Tidewater, and the outcome
in the hard-fought battle new 11th District in Northern Virginia
between state Del. Leslie L. Byrne (D) and law professor Henry N.
Butler (R).  A victory by Byrne would yield the state's first
woman member of Congress. The revamped delegation also is certain
to include its first African American in this century, state Sen.
Robert C. Scott (D), running in a new black-majority district
between Richmond and Norfolk.<

WEST VIRGINIA<Democratic loyalties run as deep as the mines here
and Clinton is the beneficiary. In the other main race, Gov. Gas-
ton Caperton (D) has a personal style that causes him problems
but the opposition to his second-term bid is divided. Republican
Cleve Benedict, state agriculture commissioner, is splitting the
anti-Caperton vote with state Sen. Charlotte Pritt (D), who fin-
ished a close second to Caperton in the Democratic primary and
whose backers are mounting a grass-roots, write-in campaign with
little money but lots of energy. The result is likely to be
another win for the wealthy governor. Democrats lost one House
seat to reapportionment but are likely to hold the three remain-
ing, with only Rep. Nick J. Rahall II under serious challenge.<
02:03 11-02C9999-----

Copyright 1992, The Washington Post.  This story is from the
Washington Post's Capitol Edition On-Line and is not to be ar-
chived or redistributed.

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