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Subject: Bush Holding Onto Virginia Again;Clinton Sweeps Maryland, Reversing Recent
Date: Wed, 4 Nov 92 04:54:43 EST
Message-ID: <7.1992Nov4.045444@AmeriCast.com>

Bush Holding Onto Virginia Again;Clinton Sweeps Maryland, Revers-
ing Recent History of GOP Victories; Takes District<By Donald P.
Baker=Washington Post Staff Writer=

The appeal of an all-southern Democratic ticket apparently wasn't
enough to end Republican domination of presidential voting in
Virginia yesterday, even as voters in Maryland and the District
contributed to Bill Clinton's apparent victory.

Early results showed President Bush leading in Virginia, although
not by nearly as much as he did four years ago when he defeated
Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis by 21 percentage points.<
Beautiful weather throughout the region, combined with all-time
high registrations, helped add to what may have resulted in
record turnouts in all three jurisdictions.

Polling place interviews in Virginia yesterday indicated that the
message of economic change pushed by the Arkansas governor and
his running mate, Tennessee Sen. Albert Gore Jr., had won some
votes in depressed areas across the state. The Democrats also ap-
peared to be attracting some white males back to the party that
many of them began deserting in 1964, the last time the party
captured the state in a presidential election and the year the
federal Civil Rights Act was passed.

"The message of change has resonated throughout Virginia. It's
clear we're competitive," said a buoyant Chuck Dolan, the
Clinton-Gore chairman in Virginia.

Joe Elton, executive director of the Virginia GOP, acknowledged a
"sentiment for change" but predicted another Bush victory in the
state.

The Democratic runaway in Maryland was across the board, accord-
ing to exit polls. Clinton was exceeding the showing in 1988 by
Dukakis in nearly every category of voters, be it sex, age, race
or income. The lone exception was among voters 60 and older, with
whom Bush appeared to be exceeding his showing four years ago in
Maryland.  Independent Ross Perot appeared to fare less well in
area voting than he did nationally.<

Democratic Gov. William Donald Schaefer's surprise defection to
Bush didn't help Republicans trying to repeat their recent win-
ning streak in Maryland. Although Schaefer said recently he
thought his endorsement was worth a couple of percentage points
in the state, many political observers believe that the
governor's weak approval ratings diluted the impact of his an-
nouncement.

Four years ago, Bush captured Maryland's 10 electoral votes by
edging Dukakis by 3 percentage points, 51 percent to 48 percent.
In 1984, incumbent Ronald Reagan carried the Free State over
Walter Mondale, 53 percent to 47 percent.

Recent polls indicated that Clinton had a big lead in Maryland
and an even larger margin of support in the Washington suburbs.
Virginia Gov. L. Douglas Wilder, after an early reluctance to en-
dorse his erstwhile rival for the Democratic nomination, picked
up the slack created by Jesse L. Jackson's lukewarm support of
Clinton by campaigning for him in black precincts throughout the
South, East and Midwest. Wilder went to Little Rock, Ark., yes-
terday afternoon to attend Clinton's election party.

Like Schaefer, Wilder's popularity is lagging at home, so he did
little campaigning in Virginia, where pre-election polls gave
Bush a slight lead in the race for the state's 13 electoral
votes.

Clinton's campaign in Virginia was a fight to reverse recent his-
tory. Republicans have won the state in the previous six
presidential elections, dating to 1968.

As a moderate from the South, Clinton is a more recognizable,
less threatening breed of Democrat to many Virginians than recent
Democratic contenders such as Dukakis, of Massachusetts, and Mon-
dale, of Minnesota, said political scientist Tom Morris,
president of Emory & Henry College.

"Clinton is very much in sync with the Virginia Democrats,"
Morris said. Clinton also was helped in Virginia by his activism
in the Democratic Leadership Council, a group of moderate Demo-
crats whose members also include such well known Virginians as
Sen. Charles S. Robb and former governor Gerald L. Baliles.

The Democratic effort in Virginia also was aided by the economic
downturn, which affected many suburban white-collar voters who
had voted Republican in earlier elections. "Virginia statewide
races break down on who can carry the suburban vote," Morris
said.  The last Democrat to carry the Old Dominion was Lyndon B.
Johnson. His nationwide landslide victory over Barry Goldwater in
1964 kept Virginia, then still largely a one-party state, Demo-
cratic. But even then, there were signs of defection: Johnson
managed only 51.7 percent of the vote, compared with 48.1 percent
for Goldwater.

The Democrats hit bottom in Virginia in 1968 and 1972 when their
nominees, Hubert Humphrey and George McGovern, each garnered only
about 30 percent of the vote. Southerner Jimmy Carter fared
better in 1976 and 1980, but still lost the state to Gerald Ford
and Ronald Reagan, respectively.

In 1984, Mondale drew only 37 percent of the vote in Virginia
against Reagan. Four years later, Dukakis did only two percentage
points better against Bush.

In the District, whose residents first had the right to vote in
presidential races in 1964, the Democratic nominee has never
faced a serious challenge, national landslides notwithstanding,
for its three electoral votes.

Dukakis, who was a distant second to Jackson in the city's 1988
Democratic primary, trampled Bush 83 percent to 14 percent that
fall. In the Reagan landslide of 1984, the incumbent president
had fared even worse, losing to Mondale 85 percent to 14
percent.<Staff writer John F. Harris contributed to this re-
port.<02:08 11-04C9999-----

Copyright 1992, The Washington Post.  This story is from the
Washington Post's Capitol Edition On-Line and is not to be ar-
chived or redistributed.

For more information, send-email to American Cybercasting Cor-
poration (usa@AmeriCast.COM)