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Subject: Area's Suburban Voters Deliver a Consistently Mixed Message<By Richard
Date: Thu, 5 Nov 92 05:01:45 EST
Message-ID: <77.1992Nov5.050145@AmeriCast.com>

Area's Suburban Voters Deliver a Consistently Mixed Message<By
Richard Tapscott=Washington Post Staff Writer=

Maryland and Virginia voters sent some mixed, if not garbled,
messages Tuesday, forcing election analysts to read results like
hieroglyphics in their attempts to decipher any pattern.  For ex-
ample: Virginia voters overwhelmingly supported the issuance of
bonds, actually hundreds of millions of dollars of debt. Their
Maryland counterparts in Montgomery and Prince George's counties
turned down tax limitation initiatives. One interpretation: Wash-
ington suburbanites like activist government.

"The bond issue in Virginia and the tax referendum defeats in
Maryland reflect the fact that suburban voters are getting seri-
ous about the future," said American University political scien-
tist Jamin Raskin. "That was a central message of the Clinton
campaign."

Not necessarily. At least half the reason a tax rollback was de-
feated in Montgomery, said pollster Keith Haller, may have been a
voter backlash against the initiative's sponsor, lawyer-activist
Robin Ficker.

"It would be a leap to assume this was a reaffirmation of a li-
beral agenda," Haller added. "Voters just don't want local
government to grind to a halt."

Raskin said the election results show Northern Virginia becoming
more and more like the Maryland suburbs.

Democrat Leslie L. Byrne defeated Henry N. Butler (R) in
Virginia's 11th District, becoming the first woman to represent
the Old Dominion in Congress, and state Sen. Albert R. Wynn (D)
was elected in the Maryland 4th District, the first black member
of the U.S. House from the Washington suburbs.

Ground-breaking, perhaps, but more the result of slow population
shifts over the years than a massive change of heart, other
analysts said. Wynn's general election opponent also is black,
and the state legislature redrew the 4th District's boundaries
with the intention of creating a majority-black jurisdiction.

The election results are "a mixed bag, and it's difficult to gen-
eralize," said Larry Sabato, professor of government at the
University of Virginia.  "Demographically, Northern Virginia has
diversified in the last 15 years, so to that extent it . . . more
accurately represents the whole metropolitan area, but certainly
not consistently. It's sometimes true, but it was sometimes true
20 years ago."

Added Haller: "People can be very discriminating, based on local
circumstances."

It is unarguably true that Maryland suburbs kept up their pro-
gressive ways, giving victory margins to an abortion-rights bal-
lot question, as well as to Sen. Barbara A. Mikulski (D), Wynn
and U.S. Reps. Steny H. Hoyer (D) and Constance A. Morella (R).
President-elect Bill Clinton returned Maryland to the Democratic
column after the state backed Republicans in the 1984 and 1988
elections. In winning Maryland, Clinton carried Howard County,
becoming the first Democrat to do so since President Lyndon B.
Johnson's reelection landslide in 1964.

President Bush carried Virginia again, but he won Fairfax County
by a smaller margin than in 1988.

Does that and the election of the first woman and first black
members of Congress from Virginia mean the state is more liberal?

"I don't think so," Haller said.

Or, does the fact that the Maryland GOP picked up a fourth seat
on the eight-member House delegation mean that the state is
becoming more Republican?

"I don't think so," Haller said.

"I think it's a mistake to read too much into the election re-
turns," he added. "There's nothing overriding or consistent in
the trend lines. I think it's more coincidence."

In particular, Haller warned, it's unwise to weave results in lo-
cal and national races or issues into some philosophical tapes-
try.

The abortion issue had great strength in both Maryland and Vir-
ginia suburbs on Tuesday.

Byrne played up her support of abortion rights to help her win
the 11th District in Virginia. The abortion-rights measure in
Maryland carried by wider-than-expected margins, with heavy sup-
port in Montgomery and Prince George's.

On such "national" issues, there is some consistency between the
two states, analysts said.

"Northern Virginia has been particularly sensitive to the abor-
tion issue," Sabato said.

Suburbs in both states, he said, have something of a Washington
complex. "They view themselves as belonging more to Washington
and its government than Annapolis and Richmond, so they tend to
be more attentive and responsive to national trends, like the
year of women," he added.<03:00 11-05C9999-----

Copyright 1992, The Washington Post.  This story is from the
Washington Post's Capitol Edition On-Line and is not to be ar-
chived or redistributed.

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poration (usa@AmeriCast.COM)