Path: bloom-picayune.mit.edu!snorkelwacker.mit.edu!americast.com!americast.com!americast-post
Newsgroups: americast.wpost
From: americast-post@AmeriCast.Com
Organization: American Cybercasting
Approved: americast-post@AmeriCast.com
Subject: Northern Va. Leads Area In Economic Recovery<By Kara Swisher<Washington Post
Date: Tue, 10 Nov 92 04:53:22 EST
Message-ID: <4.1992Nov10.045323@AmeriCast.com>

Northern Va. Leads Area In Economic Recovery<By Kara
Swisher<Washington Post Staff Writer=

 Northern Virginia, which led the Washington region into the re-
cession in 1990, now appears to be the part of the metropolitan
area where economic activity is the strongest, according to a re-
port released yesterday by the Greater Washington Research
Center.

As part of a monthly survey of the local economy, the center said
that activity in Northern Virginia was rising in several key
measures of business - including residential electrical hookups,
new business telephone connections and new home sales - while the
picture is much weaker in suburban Maryland and the District of
Columbia.  In each case, Northern Virginia accounted for 60 per-
cent or more of the region's economic improvement cited in the
report. For example, of the 12,941 new business telephone lines
installed in the area during the first nine months of this year,
63 percent went into workplaces in Northern Virginia.  "Northern
Virginia always enjoyed better growth in the 1980s and they were
hit hardest in the recession," said Stephen S. Fuller, who
analyzes the monthly economic scorecard. "And they are benefiting
better now as the economy improves."

 But the report also underscored that the economic outlook for
the area as a whole - including the District and suburban Mary-
land - is still lackluster. An index of leading indicators of the
local economy, which is designed to forecast the level of econom-
ic activity, declined slightly in August, reversing a positive
performance in July.

 While Fuller said the 0.07 percent decline of the index of lead-
ing indicators in August was too small to be a significant signal
that the region's economy would contract, the drop reinforced
earlier analyses that the recovery was longer in coming than many
had expected.

 "This does not say there is going to be a downturn, but (is)
saying that nothing much exciting is happening," Fuller said.

  Fuller said it was unclear why economic activity is stronger
this year in Northern Virginia than in suburban Maryland and the
District. But he suggested that Northern Virginia's reputation
for having a good business climate might be a factor.



Some local Maryland officials said that the statistics cited in
the report did not paint a full picture. They pointed out the low
office vacancy rates and low unemployment level in suburban Mary-
land.

 "Successful economic development is a measure of how well you do
rather than how fast you grow ... rapid growth is not a measure
of economic success," said Jon A.  Gerson, director of the
Montgomery County Office of Economic Development.  In the leading
index for the entire region, the results showed declines in three
components - durable goods sales, residential electrical hookups
and the national index of leading indicators. The fourth com-
ponent, the Johnston, Lemon index of local stock prices, was the
only one to rise.



The report also cited a drop of 0.7 percent in August in a coin-
cident index, or one that measures current economic performance.
The drop in the index - including employment, airport boardings,
Washington Post advertising linage and the national consumer con-
fidence index - marked the second straight monthly decline after
two months of growth. This seesaw performance has occurred all
through 1992.

Among the leading indicators, some signals were better, including
basic business telephone line connections, which increased 82.4
percent for the year's first nine months compared with the same
period in 1991.

 Residential electrical hookups scored best in Northern Virginia.
They jumped 14.2 percent there, while hookups in the District and
Maryland declined 28.4 percent over the same period.

 New-home sales also were strongest in Northern Virginia, which
accounted for more than 60 percent of the 22.7 percent rise in
net sales of new homes for the period.

02:06 11-10C9999-----

Copyright 1992, The Washington Post.  This story is from the
Washington Post's Capitol Edition On-Line and is not to be ar-
chived or redistributed.

For more information, send-email to American Cybercasting Cor-
poration (usa@AmeriCast.COM)