15.0791  Introduction to Applied Probability

About Quiz 2

Students:

On this quiz as on the earlier one, a score of 80% or above is in the A range, a score of 50-74% is in the B range, and 75-79% is the demilitarized zone between A and B. ( I do not grade on a curve, so don't ask about the mean.) Of course, the final exam will play a large role in the grading, especially if it helps you. We do look at the homework records, and are unhappy when submissions are missing.

I'm happy to discuss the curse grading with anyone who would like that, much as I'm happy to correct any mistakes in grading of this quiz. Please look carefully at the solutions before reaching any conclusion that the grading was too harsh.

Overall, the class did very well on the quiz. I was pleasantly surprised at how much strength was shown on the first two problems. On the third problem, however, the casualties were heavy. That was essentially the same Poisson problem that appeared on the first quiz, when only two people got it correct. This time, about a quarter of the class succeeded. Luckily for many students, the score from the first two problems was so high that the lapses on the last problem did not push them out of the A range.

I'll be back later with a summary of today's lecture. For now, I'm proud of you, and how well you've mastered the complexities of conditional probability.

Arnie

Announced on 20 November 2017  4:46  p.m. by Arnold I Barnett

Quiz 2 - Solutions Posted

Dear students,
The solutions to the second Quiz have just been posted.
We'll be happy to answer all questions, comments and concerns you may have.
Since our Final Exam is late this year, we'll have more time to review, do office hours and recitation. If you have particular dates and times that work, please e-mail me and I will do my best to plan for it. More on that in the coming days!
All the best!
Xavi

Announced on 20 November 2017  3:59  p.m. by F. Javier Roca Artola

Office Hours Monday 12pm

Dear students,
I will host office hours on Monday 12pm at the usual room E51-242.
If you have questions while you work on HW7 (due Monday), you can always e-mail us.
I hope you have a good weekend!
Xavi

Announced on 18 November 2017  1:12  p.m. by F. Javier Roca Artola

Out of Control

Students:

Today we explored the Central Limit Theorem a bit more, considering both the die tosses that cost me $40 and statistical quality control. Please read the corresponding discussion in Section 4.8. We also began our treatment of correlation in Section 4.9 and worked through Example 4.34. Next Monday, we will delve further into the material Section 4.9.

Homework 7 is due next Monday 11/20, and consists of:

Exercises 4.5, 4.11, and 4.31, 4.47, and 4.50, and Items 1, 2, 3 and 5 of Chapter 4 EZ Pass.

Let us know what questions you have as you complete the assignment.

See you Monday.

Arnie

Announced on 15 November 2017  7:28  p.m. by Arnold I Barnett

Office Hours tomorrow 9am

Dear Students,
Tomorrow I will bring the graded HW6 at the office hours at 9am in E51-242. Feel free to come by to pick it up and ask questions in case you'd like to clarify and review any of its concepts before the Quiz.
A friendly reminder that our Quiz will take place at 1pm so please arrive on time in order to make the most of our available time.
I hope that your review is going well and that you have a nice Sunday!
Xavi

Announced on 12 November 2017  2:37  p.m. by F. Javier Roca Artola