15.218  Global Economic Challenges and Opportunities

Readings for May 3---Brexit debate

Hi Everyone,

We will devote the last session of the class (not counting the review and final) on a discussion of Brexit. The referendum is scheduled for June 23, 2016 and has attracted attention as the debate has implications for the UK, the rest of Europe, and the rest of the World. The plan for the class is to have a discussion focused on a few issues as described below. Each one of you should prepare for and contribute to this discussion.

Please spend some time, about half an hour, on recent news coverage so as to familiarize yourself with the current debate. Two recent WSJ articles have been posted on Stellar. Other suggested sources include the FT or the Economist, if you have a subscription. A good source that does not require subscription is the Guardian EU referendum website: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/eu-referendum

For preparation for the discussion, you are expected to spend another hour or so studying various arguments in favor and against Brexit and implications for the rest of the world by reading several (around a dozen) of the editorial pieces collected in the OMFIF series on UK EU referendum. http://www.omfif.org/analysis/uk-eu-referendum/

Choose half a dozen pieces to read, adding to the six I suggest below. The half dozen I suggest to start with, to capture diverse perspectives, are from Germany (three ex-Buba policymakers), from Poland (a current official, identity not disclosed) and two from the UK:
No. 2 (Issing)
No. 24 (Lawson)
No. 27 (Welteke)
No. 32 (official from Poland)
No. 37 (Wilding)
No. 42 (Sarrazin)

You are expected to take a position how you would vote on June 23 if you lived in the UK and also whether you would support Brexit or not if you lived somewhere else in the EU.

Be prepared to contribute to a discussion of the following two sets of issues. First, regarding consequences/implications for the UK, whether:

(a) The EU helps or hinders economic growth and economic crisis management in the UK.
(b) EU membership helps or hinders management of immigration and social issues in the UK.
(c) EU membership leverages or dilutes the global power of the UK in foreign affairs.

After discussing the issues above, we will turn into a discussion of implications of the vote for the rest of Europe and the rest of the World.

(d) Would Brexit lead to an improvement or deterioration of governance for the rest of the EU?
(e) What are likely implications for the euro and migration crises?
(f) Would Brexit improve global economic and political stability?

Regards

Athanasios

Announced on 28 April 2016  12:01  p.m. by Athanasios Orphanides

Readings for April 26 and country presentations

Hi Everyone,

Next Tuesday we will devote the class on one of the class-selected topics: Global Implications of Oil Price Changes. Two readings are posted on Stellar, a special section from last week's WEO and a short article from the Economist. There is much more material for anyone interested (let me know if anyone is looking for something specific) but thought it would be best to keep it brief for the class since we also have the country presentations later this week.

Recall that we expect to receive a presentation on your selected country by WEDNESDAY (5pm) and then plan to discuss the countries in class on THURSDAY morning.

Regards

Athanasios

Announced on 22 April 2016  4:17  p.m. by Athanasios Orphanides

Readings for April 21

Hi Everyone,

Hope you had a chance to catch some of the IMF coverage over the past few days. On Thursday, we will follow up on that with a session on International Institutions, Global Imbalances & Currency Wars. Note that this combines material that was originally listed for 2 sessions on the syllabus. The change is so that we have room to add two "class choice" sessions rather than one by the end of the course. (A revised syllabus reflecting the change is posted.)

On Thursday, we will discuss material from the following 4 readings, 2 for background and 2 to bring us up to date with the discussions in Washington over the past few days. All four can be found on line:
The IMF and the World Bank: How Do They Differ? (Driscoll, 1996).
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/exrp/differ/differ.htm
What did you do in the currency war, Daddy? (Bernanke, 2016). http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/ben-bernanke/posts/2016/01/05-currency-war-daddy
Communiqué: G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, April 15, 2016. http://www.imf.org/external/np/cm/2016/041616.htm (Paragraphs 1 and 2)
IMF GFSR, April 2016, Chapter 1. https://www.imf.org/External/Pubs/FT/GFSR/2016/01/index.htm

REgards

Athanasios

Announced on 19 April 2016  12:28  a.m. by Athanasios Orphanides

Assignment #4 posted

Hi Everyone,

The 4th and LAST assignment has been posted on Stellar. This is a group assignment, due on April 27, 5pm and involves analysis of one country, either Indonesia or Turkey. Each group should first select the country to work on. Please let us know of that choice in the next few days and at the latest by next Wednesday, April 20, 5pm.

Regards

Athanasios

Announced on 13 April 2016  10:23  p.m. by Athanasios Orphanides

IMF/World Bank Spring meetings

Hi Everyone,

As mentioned in class, this is the week when the IMF/World Bank Spring meetings take place in Washington DC. Many of the related events are available on line. A listing is here: http://www.imf.org/external/meetings/NewSchedule.aspx?meetingid=26

The new WEO and other publications are also posted on the IMF website.

Regards

Athanasios

Announced on 13 April 2016  9:27  a.m. by Athanasios Orphanides