\HeaderA{exp.tilt}{Exponential Tilting}{exp.tilt}
\keyword{nonparametric}{exp.tilt}
\keyword{smooth}{exp.tilt}
\begin{Description}\relax
This function calculates exponentially tilted multinomial distributions 
such that the resampling distributions of the linear approximation to a
statistic have the required means.
\end{Description}
\begin{Usage}
\begin{verbatim}
exp.tilt(L, theta=NULL, t0=0, lambda=NULL,
         strata=rep(1, length(L)))
\end{verbatim}
\end{Usage}
\begin{Arguments}
\begin{ldescription}
\item[\code{L}] The empirical influence values for the statistic of interest based on the 
observed data.  The length of \code{L} should be the same as the size of the 
original data set.  Typically \code{L} will be calculated by a call to \code{empinf}.

\item[\code{theta}] The value at which the tilted distribution is to be centred.  This is not
required if \code{lambda} is supplied but is needed otherwise.

\item[\code{t0}] The current value of the statistic.  The default is that the statistic equals 0.

\item[\code{lambda}] The Lagrange multiplier(s).  For each value of \code{lambda} a multinomial 
distribution
is found with probabilities proportional to \code{exp(lambda * L)}.  In general
\code{lambda} is not known and so \code{theta} would be supplied, and the corresponding
value of \code{lambda} found.  If both \code{lambda} and \code{theta} are supplied then
\code{lambda} is ignored and the multipliers for tilting to \code{theta} are found.

\item[\code{strata}] A vector or factor of the same length as \code{L} giving the strata for the
observed data and the empirical influence values \code{L}.

\end{ldescription}
\end{Arguments}
\begin{Details}\relax
Exponential tilting involves finding a set of weights for a data set to
ensure that the bootstrap distribution of the linear approximation to a 
statistic of interest has mean \code{theta}.  The weights chosen to achieve this
are given by \code{p[j]} proportional to 
\code{exp(lambda*L[j]/n)}, where \code{n} is the number of data points.  
\code{lambda} is then 
chosen to make the mean of the bootstrap
distribution, of the linear approximation to the statistic of interest, equal
to the the required value \code{theta}.  Thus \code{lambda} is defined as the 
solution of a nonlinear equation.   
The equation is solved by minimizing the Euclidean distance between 
the left and right hand sides of the equation using the function \code{nlmin}.
If this minimum is not equal to zero then the method fails.


Typically exponential tilting is used to find suitable weights for importance
resampling.  If a small tail probability or quantile of the distribution of
the statistic of interest is required then a more efficient simulation is to
centre the resampling distribution close to the point of interest and
then use the functions \code{imp.prob} or \code{imp.quantile} to estimate the required
quantity.


Another method of achieving a similar shifting of the distribution is through
the use of \code{smooth.f}.  The function \code{tilt.boot} uses \code{exp.tilt} or \code{smooth.f}
to find the weights for a tilted bootstrap.
\end{Details}
\begin{Value}
A list with the following components :



\begin{ldescription}
\item[\code{p}] The tilted probabilities.  There will be \code{m} distributions where \code{m} is the
length of \code{theta} (or \code{lambda} if supplied).  If \code{m} is 1 then \code{p} is a vector
of \code{length(L)} probabilities.  If \code{m} is greater than 1 then \code{p} is a matrix
with \code{m} rows, each of which contain \code{length(L)} probabilities.  In this case
the vector \code{p[i,]} is the distribution tilted to \code{theta[i]}.  \code{p} is
in the form required by the argument \code{weights} of the function \code{boot} for
importance resampling.

\item[\code{lambda}] The Lagrange multiplier used in the equation to determine the tilted
probabilities.  \code{lambda} is a vector of the same length as \code{theta}.

\item[\code{theta}] The values of \code{theta} to which the distributions have been tilted.  In general
this will be the input value of \code{theta} but if \code{lambda} was supplied then 
this is the vector of the corresponding \code{theta} values.

\end{ldescription}
\end{Value}
\begin{References}\relax
Davison, A. C. and Hinkley, D. V. (1997) 
\emph{Bootstrap Methods and Their Application}. Cambridge University Press.


Efron, B. (1981) Nonparametric standard errors and confidence intervals 
(with Discussion). \emph{Canadian Journal of Statistics}, \bold{9}, 139--172.
\end{References}
\begin{SeeAlso}\relax
\code{\LinkA{empinf}{empinf}}, \code{\LinkA{imp.prob}{imp.prob}}, \code{\LinkA{imp.quantile}{imp.quantile}}, \code{\LinkA{optim}{optim}}, \code{\LinkA{smooth.f}{smooth.f}}, \code{\LinkA{tilt.boot}{tilt.boot}}
\end{SeeAlso}
\begin{Examples}
\begin{ExampleCode}
# Example 9.8 of Davison and Hinkley (1997) requires tilting the resampling
# distribution of the studentized statistic to be centred at the observed
# value of the test statistic 1.84.  This can be achieved as follows.
grav1 <- gravity[as.numeric(gravity[,2])>=7,]
grav.fun <- function(dat, w, orig)
{    strata <- tapply(dat[, 2], as.numeric(dat[, 2]))
     d <- dat[, 1]
     ns <- tabulate(strata)
     w <- w/tapply(w, strata, sum)[strata]
     mns <- tapply(d * w, strata, sum)
     mn2 <- tapply(d * d * w, strata, sum)
     s2hat <- sum((mn2 - mns^2)/ns)
     as.vector(c(mns[2]-mns[1],s2hat,(mns[2]-mns[1]-orig)/sqrt(s2hat)))
}
grav.z0 <- grav.fun(grav1,rep(1,26),0)
grav.L <- empinf(data=grav1, statistic=grav.fun, stype="w", 
                 strata=grav1[,2], index=3, orig=grav.z0[1])
grav.tilt <- exp.tilt(grav.L, grav.z0[3], strata=grav1[,2])
boot(grav1, grav.fun, R=499, stype="w", weights=grav.tilt$p,
     strata=grav1[,2], orig=grav.z0[1])
\end{ExampleCode}
\end{Examples}

